On July 28, the Hong Kong stock market saw a collective plunge in memory chip stocks, with the Southern Double Long Hynix falling over 21% and the Southern Double Long Samsung Electronics dropping over 17%. Additionally, Zhaoyi Innovation fell over 11% and Lanqi Technology dropped over 9%. Overnight, U.S. chip stocks experienced severe declines, triggering a chain reaction that led to a complete collapse of the Japanese and Korean stock markets today. The Korean Composite Index at one point fell over 8%, with Hynix down over 11% and Samsung Electronics down over 9%. On the news front, Nvidia not only reached a $500 billion AI collaboration with SK Group but is also exploring providing up to $250 billion in financing guarantees for OpenAI. This has reignited market concerns regarding the cash flow logic of AI capital expenditure cycles. Nvidia's 5-year CDS surged 14 basis points to 82 basis points in a single day, marking the largest single-day increase in history. The market has realized that Nvidia is no longer a risk-free, easy profit 'pure shovel seller' but has instead been downgraded to a hidden unlimited liability guarantor on the entire aggressive debt chain of AI. Should downstream AI applications fail to monetize as expected, Nvidia will be forced to bear fatal joint debt risks.
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Korean Stocks Plunge; Double Long Positions in Hynix and Samsung Drop Over 21% and 17% Respectively
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Citi Maintains Short-Term Gold Price Target of $4,500
On July 28, Citi maintained its short-term gold price target of $4,500 per ounce for the next 0 to 3 months. This target assumes a de-escalation of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and a shift to a less hawkish stance by the Federal Reserve. However, there are still numerous short-term risks that could lead to a decline in gold prices, including significant re-escalation, AI-driven de-risking operations, and the Fed's continued hawkish position. -
The Big Short Prototype: Any Tech Giant Cutting AI Spending Will Cause US Stock Market to Plummet
On July 28, Steve Eisman, known for his role in 'The Big Short', issued a new warning that if any major tech giant cuts its artificial intelligence (AI) capital expenditures, the US stock market will 'plummet'. He pointed out that the current market has turned into a single trading environment that is completely reliant on the success or failure of AI. The market's perception of AI has changed dramatically compared to a year ago, when investors enthusiastically welcomed every increase in capital expenditure. 'The situation is now much more complicated. This doesn't mean it's all bad, but it is indeed much more complex.' -
U.S. Conducts Surprise Inspections at Chinese Factories in Vietnam, Raising New Tariff Concerns
On July 28, Bloomberg reported that U.S. Customs officials conducted surprise inspections at Chinese-owned factories in Vietnam, heightening market concerns that the White House may soon find an excuse to impose additional tariffs on the Southeast Asian nation. As sensitive trade negotiations between the U.S. and Vietnam are still ongoing, insiders indicated that inspectors rigorously examined relevant documents, sources of raw materials, and production processes to determine how much value was added to products before their export to the U.S., while also investigating potential software intellectual property infringements. The sources noted that although these inspections have raised market fears about the U.S. possibly expanding its tariff regime against Vietnam, no substantial evidence has yet been provided to prove that Chinese goods are being illegally transshipped through Vietnam. -
Korea Exchange Activates Circuit Breaker for KOSDAQ Index
On July 28, the Korea Exchange activated a circuit breaker for the KOSDAQ index, resulting in a 20-minute trading halt. -
Japanese Finance Minister: Monetary Policy Enters New Phase Dominated by Interest Rates
On July 28, Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki stated that Japan's monetary policy has shifted to a phase dominated by interest rate levels, with prices steadily rising in a healthy manner. Additionally, she does not believe that the 370 trillion yen public-private partnership investment target is overly ambitious. She also mentioned that, apart from what the Prime Minister said yesterday, she cannot comment on the funding sources for food tax reductions. Investinglive analyst Adam Button pointed out that, in the face of rising yen exchange rates, Japanese government bond yields, and inflation rates, Japan will inevitably need to make trade-offs. Some have noted that Japan is facing the 'largest bubble in history,' a view that is not without merit. One of the factors sustaining this situation is the belief that decision-makers will not take overly aggressive actions; however, the performance of past Japanese governments has made it difficult to have confidence in their fiscal discipline. Although Japan's economy achieved solid growth last year, there is no indication that Japan can escape its current predicament solely through economic growth. -
Japan's Finance Minister: Our Stance on Foreign Exchange Remains Unchanged; US and Japan Share the Same Position
On July 28, Japan's Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki stated that the depreciation of the yen has both advantages and disadvantages. He refrained from commenting on specific foreign exchange levels or potential interventions. He emphasized that Japan's stance on foreign exchange remains unchanged and that the country is prepared to respond as necessary. He noted that the US and Japan share the same position on foreign exchange issues and declined to comment on the possibility of joint foreign exchange interventions with the US. -
KOSPI Index in South Korea Plunges 10%
On July 28, the KOSPI index in South Korea plummeted by 10%, with SK Hynix falling over 13% and Samsung Electronics dropping more than 12%. -
International Oil Prices Drop Over 1% as WTI Crude Falls Below $80
On July 28, both WTI and Brent crude oil prices declined, with WTI falling below $80 per barrel, down 1.43% for the day. Brent crude also dropped over 1%, currently priced at $84.43 per barrel. -
Southern Double Long Positions on Hynix and Samsung Electronics Decline Sharply
On July 28, the Hong Kong stock market saw an expanded decline in the storage sector, with Southern Double Long Hynix falling nearly 24% and Southern Double Long Samsung Electronics dropping over 20%. Additionally, Zhaoyi Innovation fell more than 14%, and Lanke Technology declined by nearly 10%.
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