over the past weekend, due to the closure of traditional global financial markets, a large amount of capital flowed into prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi, as well as decentralized exchanges like Hyperliquid. Investors attempted to hedge risks or speculate on the aftermath of the US and Israel's attacks on Iran through these platforms.
As tensions continued to rise before the airstrikes, keen traders began heavily betting on the direction of the Middle East conflict. Among them, prediction contracts highly related to geopolitics, such as "Will Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei step down soon?" were highly sought after and strongly promoted by the two major mainstream prediction platforms Kalshi and Polymarket.
However, this capital frenzy quickly turned into a public opinion storm. Last Saturday, a large number of doubts began to emerge on the social platform X, accusing some insiders of profiting massively on prediction markets by using advance knowledge of the military strike. Previously, similar accusations had appeared in the financial circle when the US military struck Venezuela and forcibly took control of Maduro.
These alleged "war profiteering" actions have triggered strong outrage in the US political circle. Democratic Congressman Mike Levin exposed on social media that a Polymarket account named "Magamyman" earned $515,000 in a single day just by betting that the US would strike Iran.
"This behavior being legal is absolutely ridiculous. People around Trump are lining their pockets with war and death, and I will soon propose legislation to completely ban such trades," Connecticut Senator Chris Murphy angrily responded to these accusations.
Arizona Senator Ruben Gallego also strongly condemned this phenomenon: "This is blatant insider trading and must be classified as illegal. These scoundrels are profiting from our fallen soldiers, and their actions are both disgusting and utterly immoral." It is reported that the US military announced last Sunday that since the start of the strike, three US soldiers have died and five have been seriously injured.