Cointime

Cointime

Download App
iOS & Android
Home / Point

The Big Short Prototype: Any Tech Giant Cutting AI Spending Will Cause US Stock Market to Plummet

On July 28, Steve Eisman, known for his role in 'The Big Short', issued a new warning that if any major tech giant cuts its artificial intelligence (AI) capital expenditures, the US stock market will 'plummet'. He pointed out that the current market has turned into a single trading environment that is completely reliant on the success or failure of AI. The market's perception of AI has changed dramatically compared to a year ago, when investors enthusiastically welcomed every increase in capital expenditure. 'The situation is now much more complicated. This doesn't mean it's all bad, but it is indeed much more complex.'

Comments

All Comments

Recommended for you

  • Korean Stock Market Slump Drives Retail Investors to US Stocks with Net Purchases Exceeding 5 Trillion Won This Month

    On July 28, according to the Seoul Economic Daily, as the sluggish trend in the Korean stock market continues, domestic investors in South Korea are once again turning to US stocks, with net purchases exceeding 5 trillion won this month. Data from Seibro, a securities information portal by the Korea Securities Depository, shows that from July 1 to 27, domestic investors net purchased a total of 3.58999 billion USD in US stocks, approximately 5.5 times the net purchase amount for the entire month of June. As of the 23rd, the net purchase amount was only 2.53026 billion USD, but it increased by 1.05973 billion USD over the next two trading days. Retail funds are primarily concentrated in the semiconductor and technology sectors. The product with the highest net purchases this month is the Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF, which tracks the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, with a net purchase amount of 1.75919 billion USD. SK Hynix ADR has also continued to be popular, with the net purchase amount rising to 812.38 million USD as of the 27th.

  • China Launches Special Initiative to Enhance IPv6 Capabilities for AI Large Models

    On July 28, it was reported from Xiong'an New Area that the "Special Initiative to Enhance IPv6 Capabilities for AI Large Models" was jointly launched by the Central Cyberspace Administration of China in collaboration with the internet administrations of Beijing, Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Shenzhen, along with five leading large model enterprises in Xiong'an New Area. This initiative aims to promote the application of generative large models and fully support IPv6, thereby strengthening the foundational network for the intelligent era. Currently, various applications based on AI large models are thriving, with token traffic experiencing explosive growth, which poses new demands on network carrying capacity. IPv6, with its vast address space, efficient routing mechanisms, and inherent security capabilities, has become a key foundation supporting large model applications. (CCTV News)

  • AI Giants Nvidia, Oracle, Alphabet See CDS Rise to Record Highs

    On July 28, the financing boom driven by artificial intelligence infrastructure is facing stricter scrutiny from the bond market. Data from the London Stock Exchange Group shows that the credit default swaps (CDS) related to Oracle, SpaceX, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Broadcom, and Nvidia have recently risen to record highs, indicating that investors are beginning to demand higher risk compensation. Credit default swaps, or CDS, are akin to purchasing insurance for corporate debt. A higher spread typically means that the market perceives greater risk in holding the related bonds. Oracle is under the most pressure, with its five-year CDS rising to 215 basis points on Monday, significantly up from 144 basis points at the beginning of the year. At this quote, the cost of providing one year of protection for $10 million of Oracle debt is approximately $215,000. Nvidia's five-year CDS peaked at around 82 basis points on Monday, marking the largest intraday increase since the related contracts began active trading last November. According to ICE Data Services, this means that purchasing five-year default protection for $10 million of Nvidia debt would require an annual payment of about $82,000. Alphabet's five-year CDS reached a historical high of 67 basis points on Monday. However, Alphabet's CDS will not start trading until November 2025, so the historical comparison for this 'record high' is relatively short. The credit market's concern is not about a sudden drop in AI demand, but rather a mismatch between investment scale, return cycles, and financing speed. Standard & Poor's estimates that capital expenditures for Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle could total $737 billion by 2026, significantly higher than $261 billion in 2024.

  • Asian Stock Markets Drop 10% from June Highs, Entering Correction Phase

    On July 28, Asian stock markets plummeted significantly due to an intensified sell-off in chip stocks, with regional benchmark indices heading towards a technical correction. The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index fell by as much as 3.5%, marking a cumulative decline of over 10% from its peak on June 22. Shares of South Korea's Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix dropped sharply, dragging the KOSPI index down by more than 10% during trading. Concerns over overcrowded positions in chip stocks led to a global sell-off in the semiconductor sector on Tuesday, with investors questioning the sustainability of the AI-driven rally. Nvidia is pushing forward with a new round of AI-related deals valued at over $750 billion, a move that has sparked skepticism—critics warn that this is artificially inflating market demand and valuations across the industry. 'For AI-related semiconductor stocks, market sentiment has shifted from greed to fear,' said Vey-Sern Ling, managing director at Credit Suisse. 'Investors are now inclined to interpret various news negatively and use it as a reason to sell, rather than deeply analyzing its true impact on fundamentals.'

  • Bitcoin Spot ETF Sees $11.6 Million Outflow, Ethereum Spot ETF Sees $11.7 Million Inflow

    On July 28, according to data from Farside Investors, the total net outflow from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs yesterday was $11.6 million. Among these, BlackRock's IBIT saw a net outflow of $8.8 million, and Fidelity's FBTC had a net outflow of $2.8 million; other Bitcoin ETFs had zero capital flow for the day. In contrast, the total net inflow for Ethereum spot ETFs yesterday was $11.7 million. Notably, BlackRock's ETHA recorded a net inflow of $11.7 million, while other Ethereum ETFs also had zero capital flow for the day.

  • Citi Maintains Short-Term Gold Price Target of $4,500

    On July 28, Citi maintained its short-term gold price target of $4,500 per ounce for the next 0 to 3 months. This target assumes a de-escalation of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and a shift to a less hawkish stance by the Federal Reserve. However, there are still numerous short-term risks that could lead to a decline in gold prices, including significant re-escalation, AI-driven de-risking operations, and the Fed's continued hawkish position.

  • U.S. Conducts Surprise Inspections at Chinese Factories in Vietnam, Raising New Tariff Concerns

    On July 28, Bloomberg reported that U.S. Customs officials conducted surprise inspections at Chinese-owned factories in Vietnam, heightening market concerns that the White House may soon find an excuse to impose additional tariffs on the Southeast Asian nation. As sensitive trade negotiations between the U.S. and Vietnam are still ongoing, insiders indicated that inspectors rigorously examined relevant documents, sources of raw materials, and production processes to determine how much value was added to products before their export to the U.S., while also investigating potential software intellectual property infringements. The sources noted that although these inspections have raised market fears about the U.S. possibly expanding its tariff regime against Vietnam, no substantial evidence has yet been provided to prove that Chinese goods are being illegally transshipped through Vietnam.

  • Korea Exchange Activates Circuit Breaker for KOSDAQ Index

    On July 28, the Korea Exchange activated a circuit breaker for the KOSDAQ index, resulting in a 20-minute trading halt.

  • Japanese Finance Minister: Monetary Policy Enters New Phase Dominated by Interest Rates

    On July 28, Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki stated that Japan's monetary policy has shifted to a phase dominated by interest rate levels, with prices steadily rising in a healthy manner. Additionally, she does not believe that the 370 trillion yen public-private partnership investment target is overly ambitious. She also mentioned that, apart from what the Prime Minister said yesterday, she cannot comment on the funding sources for food tax reductions. Investinglive analyst Adam Button pointed out that, in the face of rising yen exchange rates, Japanese government bond yields, and inflation rates, Japan will inevitably need to make trade-offs. Some have noted that Japan is facing the 'largest bubble in history,' a view that is not without merit. One of the factors sustaining this situation is the belief that decision-makers will not take overly aggressive actions; however, the performance of past Japanese governments has made it difficult to have confidence in their fiscal discipline. Although Japan's economy achieved solid growth last year, there is no indication that Japan can escape its current predicament solely through economic growth.

  • Japan's Finance Minister: Our Stance on Foreign Exchange Remains Unchanged; US and Japan Share the Same Position

    On July 28, Japan's Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki stated that the depreciation of the yen has both advantages and disadvantages. He refrained from commenting on specific foreign exchange levels or potential interventions. He emphasized that Japan's stance on foreign exchange remains unchanged and that the country is prepared to respond as necessary. He noted that the US and Japan share the same position on foreign exchange issues and declined to comment on the possibility of joint foreign exchange interventions with the US.

Daily Must-Read

Popular Activities

RaveDAO at Terra Solis by Tomorrowland: A Female-Led Techno Night Where Web3 Culture Converges

RaveDAO at Terra Solis by Tomorrowland: A Female-Led Techno Night Where Web3 Culture Converges

April 30 - April 30
Dubai

Popular Tags

Cointime
News
Contents
RSS
Company