On July 28, Japan's Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki stated that the depreciation of the yen has both advantages and disadvantages. He refrained from commenting on specific foreign exchange levels or potential interventions. He emphasized that Japan's stance on foreign exchange remains unchanged and that the country is prepared to respond as necessary. He noted that the US and Japan share the same position on foreign exchange issues and declined to comment on the possibility of joint foreign exchange interventions with the US.
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Japan's Finance Minister: Our Stance on Foreign Exchange Remains Unchanged; US and Japan Share the Same Position
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AI Giants Nvidia, Oracle, Alphabet See CDS Rise to Record Highs
On July 28, the financing boom driven by artificial intelligence infrastructure is facing stricter scrutiny from the bond market. Data from the London Stock Exchange Group shows that the credit default swaps (CDS) related to Oracle, SpaceX, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Broadcom, and Nvidia have recently risen to record highs, indicating that investors are beginning to demand higher risk compensation. Credit default swaps, or CDS, are akin to purchasing insurance for corporate debt. A higher spread typically means that the market perceives greater risk in holding the related bonds. Oracle is under the most pressure, with its five-year CDS rising to 215 basis points on Monday, significantly up from 144 basis points at the beginning of the year. At this quote, the cost of providing one year of protection for $10 million of Oracle debt is approximately $215,000. Nvidia's five-year CDS peaked at around 82 basis points on Monday, marking the largest intraday increase since the related contracts began active trading last November. According to ICE Data Services, this means that purchasing five-year default protection for $10 million of Nvidia debt would require an annual payment of about $82,000. Alphabet's five-year CDS reached a historical high of 67 basis points on Monday. However, Alphabet's CDS will not start trading until November 2025, so the historical comparison for this 'record high' is relatively short. The credit market's concern is not about a sudden drop in AI demand, but rather a mismatch between investment scale, return cycles, and financing speed. Standard & Poor's estimates that capital expenditures for Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle could total $737 billion by 2026, significantly higher than $261 billion in 2024. -
Asian Stock Markets Drop 10% from June Highs, Entering Correction Phase
On July 28, Asian stock markets plummeted significantly due to an intensified sell-off in chip stocks, with regional benchmark indices heading towards a technical correction. The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index fell by as much as 3.5%, marking a cumulative decline of over 10% from its peak on June 22. Shares of South Korea's Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix dropped sharply, dragging the KOSPI index down by more than 10% during trading. Concerns over overcrowded positions in chip stocks led to a global sell-off in the semiconductor sector on Tuesday, with investors questioning the sustainability of the AI-driven rally. Nvidia is pushing forward with a new round of AI-related deals valued at over $750 billion, a move that has sparked skepticism—critics warn that this is artificially inflating market demand and valuations across the industry. 'For AI-related semiconductor stocks, market sentiment has shifted from greed to fear,' said Vey-Sern Ling, managing director at Credit Suisse. 'Investors are now inclined to interpret various news negatively and use it as a reason to sell, rather than deeply analyzing its true impact on fundamentals.' -
Bitcoin Spot ETF Sees $11.6 Million Outflow, Ethereum Spot ETF Sees $11.7 Million Inflow
On July 28, according to data from Farside Investors, the total net outflow from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs yesterday was $11.6 million. Among these, BlackRock's IBIT saw a net outflow of $8.8 million, and Fidelity's FBTC had a net outflow of $2.8 million; other Bitcoin ETFs had zero capital flow for the day. In contrast, the total net inflow for Ethereum spot ETFs yesterday was $11.7 million. Notably, BlackRock's ETHA recorded a net inflow of $11.7 million, while other Ethereum ETFs also had zero capital flow for the day. -
Citi Maintains Short-Term Gold Price Target of $4,500
On July 28, Citi maintained its short-term gold price target of $4,500 per ounce for the next 0 to 3 months. This target assumes a de-escalation of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and a shift to a less hawkish stance by the Federal Reserve. However, there are still numerous short-term risks that could lead to a decline in gold prices, including significant re-escalation, AI-driven de-risking operations, and the Fed's continued hawkish position. -
The Big Short Prototype: Any Tech Giant Cutting AI Spending Will Cause US Stock Market to Plummet
On July 28, Steve Eisman, known for his role in 'The Big Short', issued a new warning that if any major tech giant cuts its artificial intelligence (AI) capital expenditures, the US stock market will 'plummet'. He pointed out that the current market has turned into a single trading environment that is completely reliant on the success or failure of AI. The market's perception of AI has changed dramatically compared to a year ago, when investors enthusiastically welcomed every increase in capital expenditure. 'The situation is now much more complicated. This doesn't mean it's all bad, but it is indeed much more complex.' -
U.S. Conducts Surprise Inspections at Chinese Factories in Vietnam, Raising New Tariff Concerns
On July 28, Bloomberg reported that U.S. Customs officials conducted surprise inspections at Chinese-owned factories in Vietnam, heightening market concerns that the White House may soon find an excuse to impose additional tariffs on the Southeast Asian nation. As sensitive trade negotiations between the U.S. and Vietnam are still ongoing, insiders indicated that inspectors rigorously examined relevant documents, sources of raw materials, and production processes to determine how much value was added to products before their export to the U.S., while also investigating potential software intellectual property infringements. The sources noted that although these inspections have raised market fears about the U.S. possibly expanding its tariff regime against Vietnam, no substantial evidence has yet been provided to prove that Chinese goods are being illegally transshipped through Vietnam. -
Korea Exchange Activates Circuit Breaker for KOSDAQ Index
On July 28, the Korea Exchange activated a circuit breaker for the KOSDAQ index, resulting in a 20-minute trading halt. -
Japanese Finance Minister: Monetary Policy Enters New Phase Dominated by Interest Rates
On July 28, Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki stated that Japan's monetary policy has shifted to a phase dominated by interest rate levels, with prices steadily rising in a healthy manner. Additionally, she does not believe that the 370 trillion yen public-private partnership investment target is overly ambitious. She also mentioned that, apart from what the Prime Minister said yesterday, she cannot comment on the funding sources for food tax reductions. Investinglive analyst Adam Button pointed out that, in the face of rising yen exchange rates, Japanese government bond yields, and inflation rates, Japan will inevitably need to make trade-offs. Some have noted that Japan is facing the 'largest bubble in history,' a view that is not without merit. One of the factors sustaining this situation is the belief that decision-makers will not take overly aggressive actions; however, the performance of past Japanese governments has made it difficult to have confidence in their fiscal discipline. Although Japan's economy achieved solid growth last year, there is no indication that Japan can escape its current predicament solely through economic growth. -
KOSPI Index in South Korea Plunges 10%
On July 28, the KOSPI index in South Korea plummeted by 10%, with SK Hynix falling over 13% and Samsung Electronics dropping more than 12%. -
International Oil Prices Drop Over 1% as WTI Crude Falls Below $80
On July 28, both WTI and Brent crude oil prices declined, with WTI falling below $80 per barrel, down 1.43% for the day. Brent crude also dropped over 1%, currently priced at $84.43 per barrel.
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