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Why is Dogecoin price up today?

Validated Media

Dogecoin continues to ride the wave of recovery alongside the broader crypto market, including memecoins, due to several factors. Foremost among them is the increasing probability of interest rate cuts in September.

Top memecoins performance on daily, weekly and monthly timeframes. Source: Messari

Additionally, the potential for a pro-crypto stance under Donald Trump’s leadership—should he win the upcoming presidential elections in the United States—further fuels market enthusiasm.

Rate cut hopes, Trump event boost DOGE price

DOGE's price has risen by 5.75% in the past 24 hours and was trading for $0.13, its highest in a month.

The memecoin’s upward trend began on July 13 after a report revealed weaker-than-expected job growth in the US. This report increased the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut in September to 94%, up from 57.5% a month ago.

Lower interest rates are generally bullish for non-yielding assets like cryptocurrencies, contributing to DOGE’s price soaring by over 40% since July 13, including today’s gains.

  DOGE/USD four-hour price chart. Source: TradingView

DOGE's rally gained extra momentum after the failed assassination attempt on former US President Donald Trump, which improved his winning probability in the November election.

Trump’s recent shift in favor of cryptocurrencies has fueled optimism among investors. As a result, his potential return to office is seen as a positive development for the crypto market, contributing to the significant rise in DOGE’s price.

On July 27, Trump will deliver a keynote address at the Bitcoin 2024 conference, where he may discuss plans for crypto-friendly regulations if he is reelected. The crypto sector speculates that Trump will announce a Bitcoin strategic reserve policy, wherein the US—like El Salvador—may deviate some of its cash or gold reserves to Bitcoin.

  Source: X

Dogecoin open interest climbs to two-week high

Today's DOGE price gains accompany a rise in its open interest (OI) in the futures market, alongside persistently positive funding rates.

Notably, the number of unsettled DOGE futures contracts reached $603.10 million on July 20, the highest in two weeks. Meanwhile, the DOGE futures funding rates were positive at 0.231% per week from -0.546% two weeks ago.

DOGE futures OI and funding rates. Source: Coinglass

The rise in OI indicates increased interest and activity in the market. Positive funding rates imply traders are willing to pay a premium to hold long positions, reflecting a more optimistic outlook on the DOGE price.

Rising DOGE price wedge bounce underway

Today’s DOGE gains are also part of a technical rebound that started after the price retested the lower trendline of its prevailing rising wedge pattern. Interestingly, the lower trendline aligns with another key support defined by DOGE’s 50-4H exponential moving average (50-4H EMA; the red wave) at around $0.12.

DOGE/USD 4H price chart. Source: TradingView

Rising wedges are typically bearish reversal patterns characterized by two ascending, converging trends. They resolve after the price breaks below the lower trendline and drops by as much as the maximum distance between the upper and lower trendline.

In the best-case scenario, DOGE’s price may continue rising until it reaches the wedge’s apex point—where two trendlines converge—at $0.14 in the days before Trump’s keynote on July 27.

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