Cointime

Download App
iOS & Android

S&P 500 More Volatile Than Bitcoin as U.S. Assets Lose Investor Favor

What to know:

  • Bitcoin's volatility has decreased compared to the S&P 500, evolving as a low-beta play against stocks.
  • Investors are moving away from U.S. assets, causing a rise in Treasury yields and a decline in the dollar index and U.S. stocks.

For years, Wall Street criticized bitcoin (BTC) for its volatility, but the situation has dramatically changed as President Donald Trump's aggressive trade policies diminish the appeal of U.S. assets.

Since Trump's Liberation Day tariff announcement on April 2, the seven-day realized volatility of the S&P 500, Wall Street's benchmark equity index, has surged from an annualized 50% to 169%, according to data from TradingView. That's the highest level since the coronavirus crash in 2020.

BTC's seven-day realized volatility has doubled to 83%, yet it remains significantly lower than the S&P 500, hinting at the cryptocurrency's possible evolution as a low-beta hedge against stocks. The cryptocurrency also looks significantly less volatile than the S&P 500 on a 30-day basis.

"Equity markets [have] experienced a dramatic spike in volatility—surpassing that of Bitcoin, which is currently seeing a decline in volatility. This raises the question: should investors place their trust in assets that are highly susceptible to political influence and human error, or in a mathematical framework and emerging store of value that is more resilient to such risks?" CoinShares' Head of Research James Butterfill said in an email.

Investors dump U.S. assets

The S&P 500 has cracked 14% in less than two months, largely due to trade war fears that have recently come true. The tech-heavy Nasdaq and Dow Jones Industrial Average have suffered similar losses alongside increased volatility in global equity markets.

Risk aversion of such magnitudes has historically seen investors park money in Treasury notes, which underpin the global financial system, and the U.S. dollar, the global reserve currency.

But since last Friday, investors have aggressively dumped Treasury notes, driving yields higher, and the dollar index has tanked. The so-called benchmark 10-year bond yield has surged by 62 basis points to 4.45% since last Friday and the dollar index, which tracks the greenback's value against major currencies, has extended its first quarter swoon to 100, the lowest level since late September.

Currencies typically appreciate when their national bond yields rise unless markets are worried about the country's debt situation, in which case investors pull money out of the bond markets, leading to a spike in yields and a concurrent currency depreciation. The Global South witnessed this in 2018.

"Yields higher, currency lower is common in EM. We saw this in the UK during the Truss debacle. But it is highly abnormal for the US: there are only four other episodes in the last 30 years in which the dollar depreciated more than 1.5% with the 30-year yield up more than 10bp," Evercore ISI said, according to Wall Street Journal's Chief Economic Correspondent Nick Timaros.

"It reflects evaporating US growth exceptionalism and the reduced attraction at the margin of dollar assets for reserve purposes amid erratic US decision-making," Evercore added.

Comments

All Comments

Recommended for you

  • Iranian Military Spokesman: Control Over Strait of Hormuz Restored Due to U.S. 'Breach of Promises'

    On April 18, Iranian media reported that an Iranian military spokesman stated that control over the Strait of Hormuz has been restored to its previous state due to the U.S. 'repeatedly breaching promises.' The strait is currently under strict management and control by the Iranian armed forces. (Xinhua News Agency)

  • BTC Falls Below $77,000

    Market data shows that BTC has fallen below $77,000, currently priced at $76,997.37, with a 24-hour increase of 2.68%. The market is experiencing significant fluctuations, so please ensure proper risk management.

  • Iranian Civil Aviation Organization Announces Partial Reopening of Airspace

    According to Iranian media reports on the 18th, the Iranian Civil Aviation Organization announced the reopening of part of Iran's airspace and several airports. (Xinhua)

  • Bitcoin ETF Sees $663.9 Million Net Inflow, Ethereum ETF Sees $127.4 Million Net Inflow

    On April 18, according to Farside Investors, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net inflow of $663.9 million yesterday, with IBIT net inflow at $284 million, FBTC net inflow at $163.4 million, and ARKB net inflow at $117.9 million. The Ethereum ETF recorded a net inflow of $127.4 million yesterday, marking the seventh consecutive day of net inflows, with ETHA net inflow at $30.8 million and FETH net inflow at $84.1 million.

  • Trump Hints at 'Good News' on Iran Issue

    On April 18, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that there is some 'pretty good news' regarding the Iran issue, but he declined to provide further details. 'We heard some pretty good news about 20 minutes ago, and it seems that progress related to Iran in the Middle East is going very smoothly,' Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One. When asked what the so-called good news was, Trump replied, 'You will hear it. I think it is something that should happen. It is a matter of course. And I believe it will happen. We will see, but I think it will happen.' (Jinshi)

  • Trump Suggests War Will Resume if No Agreement with Iran is Reached

    On April 18, President Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One that if an agreement with Iran is not reached by Wednesday, war will resume. When asked if he was prepared to extend the ceasefire agreement if no deal is made by the time the ceasefire expires on Wednesday, Trump replied, "Maybe I won't extend the ceasefire. But the blockade will continue. So, the blockade remains in place, and unfortunately, we will have to start dropping bombs again," Trump warned.

  • Chinese Ship Trapped in Strait of Hormuz Informs Crew to Prepare for Departure

    On April 18, according to Yicai, around 4 PM local time on the 17th, the Chinese ship trapped in the Strait of Hormuz has informed its crew to 'prepare for departure.' According to CCTV, on the afternoon of the 17th, Iranian Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian stated on social media that, based on the ceasefire agreement in Lebanon, all commercial vessels are allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz completely open during the remaining time of the ceasefire, following the coordinated routes announced by Iranian ports and maritime organizations.

  • DeepSeek Seeks Over $300 Million in First Round of External Funding

    According to The Information, DeepSeek is seeking over $300 million in its first round of external funding, with a valuation exceeding $10 billion.

  • BTC Surpasses $78,000

    Market data shows that BTC has surpassed $78,000, currently priced at $78,024.64, with a 24-hour increase of 5.63%. The market is highly volatile, so please ensure proper risk management.

  • BTC Surpasses $77,000

    Market data shows that BTC has surpassed $77,000, currently priced at $77,022.24, with a 24-hour increase of 3.42%. Due to significant market fluctuations, please ensure proper risk management.