On July 30, analyst Edward Harrison wrote that despite current market pricing suggesting a nearly two-thirds probability of a rate hike in September, the Federal Reserve may once again surprise by keeping rates unchanged. If this scenario occurs, it would further push up the U.S. Treasury yield curve, triggering severe market turmoil. The article notes that Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh hinted at a press conference after the July policy meeting that the spontaneous tightening of financial conditions in the near term had, to some extent, replaced the need for the Fed to act in July. Based on this logic, the market is likely to face a similar dilemma in September. Data shows that although the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for June came in below expectations, the 30-year U.S. Treasury real yield briefly surged to 2.98% on Thursday. Additionally, upcoming economic data may provide the Fed with reasons to wait and see. On one hand, the core PCE reading was lower than market expectations; on the other, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is recalculating its methodology for measuring price increases, which critics argue is flawed, and the adjustment could statistically reduce reported inflationary pressures.