2022 proved to be a tumultuous year for the crypto. The crypto market has gone through a tough period with a series of dramatic events. This included the failure of multiple stablecoins, such as TerraUSD and Luna in May, and the collapse of FTX in November. This instability was not exclusive to the cryptocurrency market. Globally, the world faced numerous events, struggled with mounting inflation, and contended with increasing interest rates.

The days of "set it and forget it" investing are long gone. Dubbed the "crypto winter", the shift in the investment landscape has led to a greater emphasis on trading education and a more sophisticated approach to financial decision-making.

In the dynamic world of cryptocurrency investing, a growing number of investors opt to entrust project screening and investment research tasks to dependable sources. This trend has paved the way for the emergence of crypto influencers. These prominent figures have emerged as trusted investment guides for those navigating the complex and ever-evolving landscape of digital assets. Among them, 0xjuu_17（枪十七） stands out as a notable example.

0xjuu_17, a renowned Chinese crypto influencer on Twitter, made waves in the community with his insightful predictions of the cryptocurrency market in a thread titled "BTC Dealer's Diary"(BTC庄家日记 ), which began in March.  

Cointime invited 0xjuu_17 to share his trading experiences, investment strategies, and market forecasts. Here's a summary of his insights during the interview:

Below is the full content of the interview:

The Market Making Mentor

Cointime: Many people are familiar with you and follow your insights due to your trading expertise. Could you share some of your trading history?

0xjuu_17: My initial exposure to trading was during junior high school when my dad was doing hot money in A-shares, which significantly influenced my early understanding of trading.

I began to personally experience the market around my freshman year of high school. Over the next ten years, I engaged in trading A-shares, futures, foreign exchange, Hong Kong stocks, US stocks, and various derivatives.

In 2014, I purchased Bitcoin and developed an interest in trading cryptocurrencies.

As my trading skills evolved, I later formed a team to offer asset management and market-making services.

During extreme market events like the Bitcoin flash crash on March 12th and the Bloodbath of crypto on May 19th, we managed to avoid causing losses for our clients, gradually building our industry reputation.

Cointime: Your industry forecasts shared on Twitter have proven to be quite accurate thus far. Recently, you were the only Chinese influencer to predict the bull market in June. Do you have any secrets for these industry predictions?

0xjuu_17: My approach primarily involves macro-level modeling and forecasting of global finance. There are two key experiences that have significantly contributed to my growth:

First, my involvement in the foreign exchange market eight years ago was pivotal. At that time, my foreign exchange mentor was a leading trader on the London Stock Exchange, holding foreign exchange trading licenses from more than ten countries.

Second, three years ago, I began following my current boss, Ed. With over a decade of experience on Wall Street, Ed was the director of one of the top three investment banks before returning to China. He shared his extensive Wall Street trading experience and macro insights with me, greatly enhancing my understanding of macroeconomics and capital.

Cointime: You identify as a "market making mentor." When did you take on this role?

0xjuu_17: I have been involved in trading for many years and have simultaneously served as a market maker for several leading firms. Roughly four years ago, I started offering consultations to various project teams.

After joining Hedgue, I managed the company's post-investment business while Ed encouraged me to foster more industry connections and develop my personal value within the crypto industry.

Currently, I provide market-making consultation for over 50 projects, most of which were introduced to me by friends. About one-third of these projects are listed on Binance, while some tokens are exclusively traded on DEX.

Cointime: What does the role of a "market making mentor" entail?

0xjuu_17: First and foremost, a market-making mentor must analyze the wallet profiles of all token holders for the project team and create a comprehensive analysis report based on factors such as the number of holders at each price level, community sentiment, and marketing conditions.

Next, in accordance with the project team's plans (such as product releases, community expansion, exchange listings, etc.), the mentor collaborates with the team to develop a market-making strategy and hands it over for implementation.

For project teams lacking the resources or capacity to establish their own trading teams, I also recommend suitable market makers.

Cointime: During this process, do project teams ever express concerns about market makers engaging in "rat trading"?

0xjuu_17: This concern is quite common among project teams.

In many cases, I assist in deploying a complete set of market-making tools on a private cloud, ensuring that the project team's market-making strategies are not leaked to third-party market makers, thus eliminating the risk of misconduct or arbitrage exploitation.

Cointime: Who is the target audience for the "Market Making Mentor"?

0xjuu_17:  My primary focus is on educating retail investors and project teams, aiming to guide them towards adopting a more professional, advanced perspective and a long-term outlook.

As the cryptocurrency industry becomes increasingly professional, it will become more challenging for retail investors to profit. I envision the future cryptocurrency market to resemble the US stock market, with institutions competing against one another and retail investors holding their positions. If a large number of retail investors leave the market due to continuous losses, it could hinder the industry's development. Through my efforts, I hope to enhance trading literacy across the industry and bridge the information gap between professional institutions and individuals. This approach won't harm any party's interests. The industry can only progress to the next stage when everyone becomes more professional and elevates their level of expertise.

Investment Strategies

Cointime: You mentioned that we should evaluate the "team," "project," and "token" separately when investing. If we don't focus on the VC, project team, or even the product behind an investment target, what should we pay attention to? As a retail investor, what is the most efficient way to uncover Alpha?

0xjuu_17: Token prices are soley influenced by the inflow and outflow of funds.

When considering opening a position in a target, I will tap into my network to gather essential information about the terms agreed upon by the participating VC and the project team, such as token release schedules and the VC's actual investment amount.

To gain a comprehensive understanding of a project, I also evaluate it from three different angles:

The project founder: Investors should observe the daily habits of the project founder, looking for signs of conspicuous consumption, such as purchasing luxury cars or mansions, and flaunting wealth.

The project team and funds: Investors ought to collect information on team members and their roles within the project. Armed with this data, they can estimate the project's monthly salary expenses and gauge marketing expenses based on market activities.

The project's historical experience: Assessing whether the project team has had previous trading experience or received guidance from market-making experts is crucial. By closely monitoring market behavior, investors can estimate the amount of money the project team has allocated to maintain market value.

An additional factor to consider is whether the project team has achieved financial independence through previous projects, which could be seen as a bonus.

For retail investors, the most efficient way to discover Alpha is by choosing a reliable source of information. This is because professional individuals and institutions typically devote considerable time and effort to screening and investment research.

Cointime: Some people claim that "99% of crypto projects are scams." What characteristics do you find in projects or tokens that you would never participate in?

0xjuu_17: There are certain red flags that I avoid. For instance, if the project team has previously been rugged or if they like to collaborate with questionable VCs.

I also ask my VC friends to contact the project team and assess their ethical standards and principles through interviews.

It is true that a large percentage of projects in the crypto industry might be deceptive, so it's crucial to source projects from trusted friends or close-knit circles.

To mitigate risks, the best approach is to establish a comprehensive project screening model in advance.

Cointime: If you were asked to achieve 100x returns with investments of $1,000 and $100,000, what would you do?

0xjuu_17: With $1,000, there aren't many options, so you can only seize opportunities when they arise. It's similar to playing poker as a short-stack player, where you take fewer risks and bet aggressively.

To achieve 100x with $1,000, I believe meme coins are currently the most suitable option for the rapid growth of such a small capital. There are unique strategies for trading meme coins, which I plan to discuss in a future thread.

With a larger investment of $100,000, there are more diverse strategies available, such as investing SGD liquidity pools, joining Binance Launchpad, and exploring other opportunities.

If you have friends with technical expertise, they can help you create MEV bots for blockchain networks other than Ethereum, or you can invest in reputable and reliable asset management firms.

Furthermore, you can set aside a part of your investment for meme coins. I've frequently observed wallets containing around $100,000 in funds, with individual meme coin transactions ranging between $2,000 and $3,000.

Cointime: Investing always involves risks. Could you share your personal experiences with highly profitable projects or major losses?

 0xjuu_17: To date, the project that has yielded the highest return on investment for me is Cardano (ADA).

In 2018, I made a modest investment of 10,000 yuan in Cardano's digital currency, ADA. At its peak, it yielding over 50 times my initial investment.

The reason is simple, I had completely forgotten about my investment. This fortuitous oversight underscores a critical trading principle: effective position management is the true key to seizing opportunities and maximizing returns.

By adeptly managing one's positions, it is possible to strike a balance between risk and reward, ensuring consistent profitability.

Another Role

Cointime: As a prominent crypto influencer on Twitter,  your influence reaches over 100,000 users. Are you satisfied with the status quo?

0xjuu_17: While Twitter offers a platform for sharing, being an influencer comes with its own set of challenges and responsibilities. It is important to remain humble and grounded.

With increased influence comes greater responsibility and scrutiny. Tens of thousands of people pay attention to your words, and as an adult, you must be accountable for every action.

Many enthusiastic friends in the community have suggested that I start paid groups or offer other paid services. However, I have yet to make a decision.

When someone pays to join a group, they typically expect to gain opportunities and benefits. It is unrealistic to expect everyone in the community to make money. Moreover, such behavior would not be sustainable. Due to varying levels of understanding and trading expertise, people might experience different outcomes even when focusing on the same target.

Community members often place too much weight on the value of shared information, sometimes mistaking a mere product review for a purchase recommendation. People have a natural aversion to losses and tend to underestimate the opportunity costs associated with gains.

Joining a paid group is, in itself, a social activity. However, some might view it as an "investment" and expect returns accordingly. When returns fall short of expectations, retail investors without proper risk management concepts may criticize and even accuse you of taking advantage of them.

As a result, I harbor some reservations about charging for small-scale sharing, particularly as I have faced questions and criticism from the community in the past.

Cointime: What insights can you share, or what advice would you give to other crypto influencers?

0xjuu_17: Influencers can be seen as a group that is easily exploited.

Over the past year, I've heard of influencers who felt taken advantage of by project teams or had their followers exploited by those same teams.

The income sources for most influencers are usually quite simple, often stemming from advertising or promotional partnerships with project teams. However, if an influencer lacks the necessary skills to thoroughly evaluate projects and comes across a team with ulterior motives, they could easily become an unsuspecting pawn in someone else's game.

Years ago, I was enticed by a project team to join as a co-founder for an initiative that offered substantial rewards. Ultimately, numerous promises made by the team fell through. This deception not only affected me but also had a negative impact on my community.

I strongly encourage all influencers to conduct thorough due diligence and and meticulously evaluate projects prior to entering into any collaboration. Taking these precautions will help avoid falling victim to manipulation.

Market Forecast

Cointime: You recently shared a perspective on Twitter, stating, "The bull market that retail investors crave isn't the bull market itself, but rather a period where there's no need for deep understanding or underlying logic; simply purchasing a target can yield profits." Do you think a bull market like this will reappear in the coming years?

0xjuu_17: Certainly, such opportunities continue to arise, but they usually exhibit two characteristics:

First, they begin rapidly and don't provide investors with much time to react. As a result, it's crucial to stay attuned to new information.

Second, these periods are short-lived. Investors who buy based on their own evaluation criteria might not exit at the optimal selling point and could get caught off guard.

Cointime: Which sector or trend have you been paying close attention to lately?

0xjuu_17: Since last year, I've been concentrating on two areas: DeFi and RWA.

DeFi represents the optimal approach for generating cash flow and leveraging opportunities within the realm of cryptocurrency investments. Sustained asset growth relies on the effective use of leverage.

RWA projects have the potential to attract significantly more capital than BTC. The growth of RWA signals that, for at least two years, incremental capital will flow into the industry, and the advantages of this trend are clear.

Cointime: As we enter the second half of the year, do you have any insights related to macroeconomic trends or trading strategies that you can share with our readers?

0xjuu_17: In the first half of the year, notable figures such as Bill Gates, Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, and other prominent politicians visited China one after another. Even US Treasury Secretary Yellen is planning a visit to China.

Currently, China and the United States represent the two primary global powers. Over the next few years, cooperation and confrontation between these nations are likely to continue.

The depreciation of Chinese Yuan is merely a prelude, as the financial rivalry between China and the United States is set to intensify.

Hong Kong, acting as a "buffer zone" between China and the United States, is well-positioned to handle this ongoing financial competition.

Some people are uncertain about the development of Web3 in Hong Kong, but I remain optimistic and believe we should continue exploring and capitalizing on the opportunities it presents.

While maintaining a thorough understanding of local laws and regulations, it's important to stay informed about global cryptocurrency trends within this dynamic environment and to carefully consider one's own opportunities and positioning.