On July 28, SK Hynix saw its market value evaporate by $47 billion in just over a month, transforming from one of the hottest themes in global artificial intelligence (AI) trading into a problematic holding in investment portfolios. Investors are concerned about overcrowding in AI-themed trades and the sharp increase in volatility due to leveraged trading, leading to a nearly 38% drop in the company's stock price from its historical high in June. During this period, SK Hynix's market value decline was only surpassed globally by SpaceX. While the AI boom has driven chip prices up, SK Hynix is expected to announce record quarterly results on Wednesday, but investors are becoming increasingly cautious, worried that rising storage chip costs may force users to reduce consumption and turn to cheaper alternatives.
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SK Hynix Loses $47 Billion in Market Value as Storage Chip Boom Shows Cracks
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Korean Stocks Plunge; Double Long Positions in Hynix and Samsung Drop Over 21% and 17% Respectively
On July 28, the Hong Kong stock market saw a collective plunge in memory chip stocks, with the Southern Double Long Hynix falling over 21% and the Southern Double Long Samsung Electronics dropping over 17%. Additionally, Zhaoyi Innovation fell over 11% and Lanqi Technology dropped over 9%. Overnight, U.S. chip stocks experienced severe declines, triggering a chain reaction that led to a complete collapse of the Japanese and Korean stock markets today. The Korean Composite Index at one point fell over 8%, with Hynix down over 11% and Samsung Electronics down over 9%. On the news front, Nvidia not only reached a $500 billion AI collaboration with SK Group but is also exploring providing up to $250 billion in financing guarantees for OpenAI. This has reignited market concerns regarding the cash flow logic of AI capital expenditure cycles. Nvidia's 5-year CDS surged 14 basis points to 82 basis points in a single day, marking the largest single-day increase in history. The market has realized that Nvidia is no longer a risk-free, easy profit 'pure shovel seller' but has instead been downgraded to a hidden unlimited liability guarantor on the entire aggressive debt chain of AI. Should downstream AI applications fail to monetize as expected, Nvidia will be forced to bear fatal joint debt risks. -
South Korea's KOSPI Index Plummets 9% to 6143.85 Points
The KOSPI index in South Korea has dropped 9% during the day, currently standing at 6143.85 points. SK Hynix fell over 12%, while Samsung Electronics declined by more than 10%. -
KOSPI Index Triggers Circuit Breaker in South Korea
On July 28, the South Korean exchange triggered a circuit breaker due to an 8% drop in the KOSPI index, resulting in a 20-minute trading halt. -
Anthropic Responds to Open Source Controversy: Opposes Ban, But Advocates for Chip and Distillation Restrictions
On July 28, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei addressed the controversy surrounding open-weight models, stating that the company has never advocated for a complete ban. After OpenAI, Google, and SpaceX joined the open-source petition, Anthropic remains the only major frontier model company that has not signed. Amodei acknowledged that open-weight models can reduce costs, enhance competition, and allow customers to deploy models independently. He described open models without dangerous capabilities as 'public goods.' However, he disagreed with the notion that open models are necessarily safer and that defenders always benefit more than attackers. Once weights are released, safety restrictions can be removed, and models cannot be retracted. Anthropic proposed three alternative measures: restricting the flow of advanced chips and manufacturing equipment to China; combating industrial-scale model distillation; and requiring all sufficiently powerful models to undergo network attack, biological risk, and alignment testing, regardless of whether they are open or closed source. -
Chip Stock Sell-off Intensifies, Japanese and Korean Markets Plummet
On July 28, influenced by concerns over Nvidia's significant AI supply agreements and intensified market competition, investor sentiment was dampened, leading to a sharp decline in the Japanese and Korean stock markets. The Nikkei 225 index fell by as much as 4%, reaching its lowest level since May 22; the Tokyo Stock Exchange index saw a maximum drop of 2.7%. The South Korean KOSPI index plummeted by 7.6%, marking a new low since April 20. Semiconductor and equipment stocks, including Tokyo Electron, Kioxia, Samsung Electronics, and SK Hynix, led the decline, each dropping over 9%. Notably, SK Hynix's stock price plummeted by 30% at one point, marking the largest single-day drop in its history; Kioxia's stock fell by 18%, the largest drop since November of last year. Amid a wave of AI-related transactions valued at over $750 billion, the cost of Nvidia's debt default insurance surged, triggering a decline in tech stocks. Hideyuki Ishiguro, Chief Strategist at Nomura Asset Management, noted that following reports of significant investment deals involving Nvidia, its credit risk has increased, which investors view as a negative signal. Furthermore, Ishiguro pointed out that advancements in semiconductor manufacturing equipment in China pose a threat to Japanese suppliers, who have long held a competitive advantage in this field. -
FTSE China A50 Index Futures Drop Over 1% in Early Trading
FTSE China A50 Index futures have fallen over 1% in early trading. -
Swiss Pictet Hong Kong Fund Recently Reduced Stake in SK Hynix
On July 28, the Swiss Pictet Hong Kong fund recently reduced its stake in SK Hynix. The company's multi-asset manager, Andy Wong, stated that the current debate centers around whether memory chips have taken too much profit. The market is looking to see if certain factors will emerge to reverse the perception that 'SK Hynix is extracting excessive profits from the supply chain.' -
Storage Stocks Plunge: Kioxia Sees Six Days of Over 10% Drops in July, SK Hynix Four Times
On July 28, Kioxia faced another significant decline, with its stock price plummeting approximately 17% in the early trading session. If this drop persists until the market closes, it will mark the sixth day in July that the stock has seen a decline of over 10%. SK Hynix, on the other hand, has recorded a drop of 10% or more for the fourth time this month. While its performance is relatively better, this situation is certainly not reassuring for investors who were fervently chasing various AI concept stocks just a few weeks ago. -
BlackRock Issues $12.55 Billion Meta Data Center Bonds with 7.534% Yield
On July 28, Bloomberg reported that BlackRock issued $12.55 billion in investment-grade bonds for Meta's data center project located in El Paso, Texas, which rose during early trading on Monday. The yield on these bonds was 7.534%, 287.5 basis points higher than U.S. Treasury yields, a level more commonly seen in the junk bond market. During the issuance phase, the subscription size for the related bonds was approximately $20 billion, only 1.6 times the issuance amount, significantly lower than the average subscription level of about 4 times for bond issuances this year. However, the higher yield ultimately attracted investors, and the yield spread in the secondary market narrowed to about 260 basis points above U.S. Treasuries, down from 287.5 basis points at issuance. Recently, technology companies have been heavily engaged in large-scale bond financing, putting pressure on investors' capacity to absorb new AI-related debt. There has been a sell-off in tech bonds, as companies like Alphabet continue to expand capital expenditures and may issue more bonds, which has weakened market demand for newly issued bonds. The early performance of BlackRock's bonds contrasts with recent issuances from companies like SpaceX. After SpaceX completed its first investment-grade bond issuance in June, the related bonds fell in the secondary market, leading investors to face significant paper losses. -
Financing Balance in Two Markets Increases by 10.025 Billion Yuan
As of July 27, the financing balance on the Shanghai Stock Exchange was reported at 1.364315 trillion yuan, an increase of 13.67 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day; the financing balance on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange was reported at 1.303962 trillion yuan, a decrease of 3.645 billion yuan from the previous trading day. The total financing balance for both markets reached 2.668277 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.025 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. (Jin Shi)
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