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Market Pricing Lowers BoE Rate Hike Bets; September Hike Probability Now Below 40%

On July 30, market pricing lowered bets on a rate hike by the Bank of England; the probability of a September rate hike is now below 40%.

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  • If Fed Holds Rates Steady in September, It Could Trigger a Sharp Surge in U.S. Treasury Yields

    On July 30, analyst Edward Harrison wrote that despite current market pricing suggesting a nearly two-thirds probability of a rate hike in September, the Federal Reserve may once again surprise by keeping rates unchanged. If this scenario occurs, it would further push up the U.S. Treasury yield curve, triggering severe market turmoil. The article notes that Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh hinted at a press conference after the July policy meeting that the spontaneous tightening of financial conditions in the near term had, to some extent, replaced the need for the Fed to act in July. Based on this logic, the market is likely to face a similar dilemma in September. Data shows that although the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for June came in below expectations, the 30-year U.S. Treasury real yield briefly surged to 2.98% on Thursday. Additionally, upcoming economic data may provide the Fed with reasons to wait and see. On one hand, the core PCE reading was lower than market expectations; on the other, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is recalculating its methodology for measuring price increases, which critics argue is flawed, and the adjustment could statistically reduce reported inflationary pressures.

  • Hassett: AI Not Pushing Market into Bubble Territory

    On July 30, Kevin Hassett, the White House economic adviser, stated that artificial intelligence has not pushed the market into bubble territory.

  • Nasdaq opens 1.67% higher, Microsoft surges nearly 12% after earnings, SK Hynix up over 8%

    On July 30, the Federal Reserve held rates steady for the fifth consecutive time this year, sending a hawkish signal. The three major U.S. stock indexes opened higher collectively, with the Nasdaq up 1.67%, the S&P 500 up 1.01%, and the Dow up 0.64%. Microsoft surged nearly 12% after its Q4 results beat expectations; it lowered its FY2027 capital expenditure guidance to $175 billion. Meta fell over 9% as free cash flow plummeted 90% to the lowest level in nearly four years, and its Q3 revenue guidance midpoint missed expectations. SK Hynix rose over 8% after SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won purchased 3,620 shares, valued at approximately 4.8 billion won (about $3.34 million) based on today's closing price.

  • Microsoft (MSFT.O) Set for Largest Single-Day Percentage Gain Since March 2020

    Microsoft (MSFT.O) is expected to record its largest single-day percentage gain since March 2020, currently up 15%. (Jin Shi)

  • Storage Stocks Rally Sharply, SK Hynix Up Over 9%

    On July 30, storage concept stocks rebounded sharply, with Silicon Motion Technology rising over 30%, SanDisk up over 15%, Seagate Technology up over 13%, Western Digital up over 11%, SK Hynix up over 9%, and Micron Technology up over 8%. In terms of news, SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won purchased 3,620 shares of SK Hynix, with a total amount of approximately 4.8 billion won (about $3.34 million) based on today's closing price, a move that boosted market confidence. SK Hynix recently reported Q2 revenue of 79.3 trillion won, up 51% quarter-on-quarter and 257% year-on-year; operating profit of 60.5 trillion won, up 61% quarter-on-quarter and 557% year-on-year, both setting historical records. Management gave a positive outlook for the second half of the year, expecting DRAM shipments to increase by about 10% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, with continuous improvement in product mix, including HBM4 and 1cnm DRAM. In addition, Goldman Sachs held a Korean storage expert webinar on July 28. Experts at the meeting believed that traditional DRAM prices will maintain strong growth of 'double-digit percentages' this year, HBM has significant room for price increases or even doubling next year, long-term agreements are increasingly binding on the market, and Chinese competitors pose limited threats in the short to medium term.

  • International crude oil's intraday decline expands to 2%

    On July 30, both U.S. and Brent crude oil saw their intraday declines expand to 2%. WTI crude oil was last reported at $81.8 per barrel, while Brent crude briefly fell below $86 per barrel. (Jin Shi)

  • Microsoft Considers Launching Open-Weight AI Models

    On July 30, according to Nikkei, Microsoft (MSFT.O) is considering offering some of its self-developed AI models in an open-weight format. Microsoft AI CEO Mustafa Suleyman stated that as Chinese AI models become increasingly popular among US users, the company is evaluating this possibility. This move indicates a potential shift in Microsoft's AI strategy. Facing competition from Chinese AI developers such as DeepSeek and Moonshot AI, Microsoft hopes to enhance its competitiveness while reducing its dependence on OpenAI. Microsoft also stated that it plans to maintain a multimodal strategy, allowing customers to use models from OpenAI or Anthropic when more suitable.

  • Oracle, Google Expand Partnership

    On July 30, Oracle and Google expanded their partnership, with Oracle launching enterprise applications based on Google's Gemini model.

  • U.S. Expected to Release First Federal Autonomous Driving System Safety Standards Before End of Trump Administration

    On July 30, the head of the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration stated that the U.S. has approved Amazon's subsidiary Zoox to commercially deploy autonomous taxis without human control. The U.S. is expected to release the first federal autonomous driving system safety standards before the end of the Trump administration.

  • Oracle Pre-Market Rises 4%

    On July 30, Oracle rose 4% in pre-market trading. On the news front, Oracle and Google expanded their partnership, and Oracle will launch enterprise applications using Google's Gemini model.

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