Click “page.Sign up” to agree to Cointime’s <a class="underline" href="#term-of-service">Terms of Service</a> and acknowledge that Cointime’s a class="underline" href="#privacy-policy">Privacy Policy</a> applies to you.
Market Pricing Indicates Decreased Probability of Multiple Fed Rate Hikes Before Mid-2027
Wechat scan to share
On August 14, market pricing shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates more than once before mid-2027 has decreased. (Jin Shi)
On August 14, according to monitoring by OnchainLens, Grayscale transferred 572.9 BTC (worth approximately $35.9 million) and 44,320 LINK (worth approximately $391,000) from its Bitcoin Trust and Chainlink Trust wallets to Coinbase Prime.
Market data shows that Strategy (MSTR) stock price has fallen below $94, possibly influenced by MSCI's consideration to remove Bitcoin treasury companies from its index system. Analysts believe that if MSCI ultimately decides to exclude Bitcoin treasury companies from the index, it may lead to selling pressure from index funds on related companies and impact their capital market valuation logic. Supporters argue that companies like Strategy, by holding Bitcoin, create a unique balance sheet model that integrates digital assets into the traditional financial system, and these companies still possess long-term investment value. The community is currently urging MSCI to retain Strategy (MSTR) in the relevant indices.
U.S. stocks opened with the Dow Jones down 0.1%, the S&P 500 up 0.1%, and the Nasdaq up 0.16%. SanDisk (SNDK.O) rose 7%, as the company expects revenue to maintain mid-to-high double-digit growth from fiscal years 2028 to 2030. Western Digital (WDC.O) and Micron Technology (MU.O) both increased by about 4%. Applied Materials (AMAT.O) fell 5% after the company announced its earnings.
On August 14, storage concept stocks in the U.S. stock market collectively rose, with SanDisk increasing by over 4%. Other notable gains included Phison Electronics and Western Digital, both rising by over 2%, while SK Hynix, Seagate Technology, and Micron Technology saw increases of over 1%. In related news, SanDisk expects its revenue to maintain mid-to-high double-digit growth from fiscal years 2028 to 2030.
On August 14, regulatory filing documents disclosed on Friday revealed that Samsung Electronics' R&D investment reached a new high of 27.3 trillion won (approximately 19 billion USD) in the first half of 2026. The South Korean tech giant's R&D expenses for the period from January to June increased by 51.5% compared to 18.06 trillion won in the same period last year, setting a record for the highest semi-annual expenditure. Additionally, Samsung Electronics' equipment investment in the first half of the year also set a semi-annual record, reaching 28 trillion won, an increase of nearly 5 trillion won year-on-year.
On August 14, retail sales data fell short of expectations, leading traders to completely abandon the prospect of a rate hike this year. The market is currently fully pricing in a rate hike to occur in January next year, which is a stark contrast to the situation just a few weeks ago, when the market increasingly anticipated two 25 basis point hikes before March 2027.
According to K33's research director Vetle Lunde, as of the end of the first half of 2026, the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund's indirect Bitcoin exposure, through holdings in companies such as Strategy, Metaplanet, MARA, Coinbase, Block, and Tesla, has risen to 11,549 BTC, a historic high valued at approximately $725 million. This exposure increased by 21.2% in the first half of the year and by 60.5% over the past year, marking the sixth consecutive reporting period of growth. Among these, Strategy accounts for nearly 86% of the fund's indirect Bitcoin exposure, corresponding to about 9,914 BTC, with the fund holding approximately 1.17% of Strategy's shares as of June 30. Metaplanet corresponds to 671 BTC, MARA to 421 BTC, and Coinbase, Block, and Tesla correspond to 183 BTC, 120 BTC, and 97 BTC, respectively. K33 notes that this exposure is likely not a result of the fund's active allocation to Bitcoin but rather an indirect effect of its broadly diversified investment portfolio, with the related Bitcoin exposure accounting for about 0.03% of the fund's total assets. Additionally, the fund has also gained indirect ETH exposure for the first time through the Ethereum treasury company BitMine, holding 6.15 million shares of BitMine valued at $88.3 million as of June 30, which corresponds to an indirect exposure of approximately 67,340 ETH based on BitMine's current ETH holdings.
On August 14, it was reported that U.S. retail sales for July recorded a month-on-month decrease of 0.6%, marking the largest drop since May of last year, and falling short of market expectations of a 0.1% increase. (Jin Ten)
On August 14, SK Hynix reported that the average salary of its employees reached 144 million won (approximately $104,000) in the first half of this year, marking a 23% increase year-on-year. The company significantly increased its capital expenditures and research and development (R&D) investments during this period. Cash outlays for tangible asset purchases exceeded 18 trillion won, a year-on-year increase of over 70%. The number of small shareholders in the company grew more than fivefold within a year, surpassing 3.46 million. In the first half of 2023, SK Hynix generated over 17 trillion won in sales from Nvidia, accounting for approximately 13% of the company's total sales.
All Comments