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Market Analysis: U.S. Non-Farm Employment Growth Expected to Slow in May, Yet Remains Robust

On June 5, following two months of strong growth, U.S. employment growth in May is expected to slow down, but still aligns with the stable conditions of the labor market. Economists anticipate that the highly anticipated employment report from the Labor Department, to be released on Friday, will confirm that while conflicts in the Middle East have driven up oil prices and fueled inflation, they have yet to have a substantial impact on the job market. They noted that fiscal stimulus measures, reflected in tax refunds and tariff rebates, have boosted corporate profits, allowing companies to avoid large-scale layoffs. A Reuters survey shows that economists expect non-farm payrolls to increase by 85,000 in May, following an increase of 115,000 in April, with estimates ranging from 50,000 to 125,000. The expected growth in May remains above the average monthly level of 76,000 so far this year. Economists also believe that there is limited room for significant revisions to historical employment data following updates to the 'birth-death' model used by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics to estimate employment changes due to business openings or closures.

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