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Macroeconomic outlook for next week: The Fed’s December rate cut may be a foregone conclusion

after a series of mixed data releases this week, swap traders reduced their bets on the Fed's loose policy path. The Dow fell 1.82% this week, the S&P 500 fell 0.64% after three consecutive weeks of gains, and the Nasdaq rose 0.34%. Bitcoin has risen for seven consecutive weeks, marking the longest consecutive rise since 2021. The last important monetary policy week of 2024 will attract investors' attention. According to statistics, at least 22 central banks, which account for two-fifths of the global economy, will determine borrowing costs by next Friday's close. The results are likely to highlight that the momentum of loose policies now appears increasingly unbalanced as decision-makers weigh different risks for the next year. The following are the key points that the market will focus on in the new week:

On Monday at 15:30, ECB President Lagarde will speak;

On Tuesday at 04:45, Bank of Canada Governor Macklem will speak;

On Thursday at 03:00, the Fed will announce its interest rate decision and economic outlook summary;

On Thursday at 03:30, Fed Chairman Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference;

On Thursday (specific time to be determined), the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision;

On Thursday at 14:30, Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda will hold a monetary policy press conference;

On Thursday at 21:30, the revised annualized quarterly rate of actual GDP for the third quarter of the United States, the initial quarterly rate of actual personal consumption expenditure for the third quarter of the United States, and the December Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index of the United States.

It is worth mentioning that the Fed's preferred basic inflation indicator, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), will be released next Friday. Economists predict that the November PCE (excluding food and energy) released on Friday may rise by 0.2%, the smallest increase in three months. This report will also show robust growth in consumer spending and income, indicating that the economy is resilient.

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