On July 19, the probability of Anthropic reaching a valuation of $1.5 trillion by the end of the year significantly decreased on the prediction market Polymarket. This change was linked to the release of Kimi K3, which has impacted the valuation expectations for Anthropic. On July 17, traders estimated the probability of Anthropic achieving a $1.5 trillion valuation within the year at about 77%; by July 18, this figure dropped to 67%, a decline of approximately 10 to 11 percentage points in just one day. The shift in market sentiment occurred following the release of Kimi K3. It is important to note that the decline reflects the contract prices in the prediction market, not an actual reduction in Anthropic's valuation by 11%. The contract bets on whether Anthropic's valuation can reach or exceed $1.5 trillion by December 31, 2026, and the probability change only reflects the expectations of participating traders regarding this target. Anthropic's most recent public financing occurred on May 28, completing a $65 billion Series H round, resulting in a post-money valuation of $965 billion. To reach the $1.5 trillion target set by the Polymarket contract, its valuation would need to increase by $535 billion, a rise of over 55%.