On July 20, according to Fast Technology, while global AI investments are booming, well-known analyst Ed Zitron recently issued a warning, pointing out that AI leader OpenAI is burdened with heavy debt. If it declares bankruptcy, it could trigger a series of chain reactions, potentially igniting the AI bubble. Zitron, in collaboration with the Financial Times, verified OpenAI's 2025 audited financial statements, which show that OpenAI's total revenue is projected to soar from $3.7 billion the previous year to $13.07 billion in 2025. However, total costs and expenses during the same period are expected to reach $34 billion, resulting in an annual operating loss of approximately $21 billion. After accounting for a massive one-time non-cash expense incurred from its transition from a non-profit to a for-profit entity (estimated by various sources to be between $30 billion and $41.6 billion), OpenAI's final net loss for 2025 could reach $38.53 billion. OpenAI is one of the largest buyers of NVIDIA's data center GPUs and a core customer of cloud service providers such as Oracle and CoreWeave, with SoftBank committing to invest up to hundreds of billions of dollars in OpenAI. If OpenAI fails to pay its infrastructure partners on time in the future, the impact will immediately affect these companies. Zitron further pointed out that once the AI investment boom subsides, memory demand will significantly decrease. The current shortage of HBM is largely driven by the enormous demand for AI training and inference, prompting memory giants like Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, and SanDisk to shift production capacity towards HBM, squeezing traditional DRAM and NAND flash production. If OpenAI reduces its computing power investment or halts expansion, the decline in GPU demand will directly affect HBM, potentially alleviating the memory chip shortage and reverting these giants to their original state, leading to a reshaping of the entire industry landscape.
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