On May 12, Goldman Sachs released a new assessment indicating that the probability of the U.S. economy entering a recession has decreased. Despite the ongoing tensions in Iran and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, international oil prices have not surged as predicted by some institutions. Coupled with strong performance in key economic data such as employment and domestic demand, the overall economic fundamentals remain resilient, and the actual impact of geopolitical events on the real economy is relatively limited. Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius formally revised the recession forecast in an analysis report released on Monday, lowering the probability of a recession in the U.S. over the next 12 months from 30% to 25%. The primary reason is the overall resilience of U.S. economic activity, which has exceeded expectations. The Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index has fallen below pre-war levels, indicating a more accommodative financial environment that supports economic expansion. Employment data serves as an important confirmation of economic stability. The non-farm payroll report for April, released last week, showed that the U.S. added 115,000 jobs in that month, far exceeding market expectations of 65,000; the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.3%. Additionally, various economic indicators confirm that the impact of the Iran conflict has been relatively mild and has not significantly burdened the U.S. economy. Hatzius also cited several key data points that support the judgment to lower the recession probability. Although the overall GDP growth rate for the U.S. in the first quarter fell short of market expectations, private domestic sales maintained robust growth, with a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, reflecting the inherent resilience of domestic demand fundamentals.