Cointime

Download App
iOS & Android

Goldman Sachs: AI Investment Wave to Dominate Q2 Earnings Season for S&P 500, but Investors Concerned About ROI

On June 30, Goldman Sachs strategist Ben Snider projected that the AI investment wave will continue to dominate the S&P 500's Q2 earnings season. He expects S&P 500 constituent earnings to grow approximately 22% year-over-year for Q2; among these, Nvidia and Micron are likely to contribute about 40% of the overall earnings increase, while AI infrastructure-related stocks will account for nearly 60%. This indicates that although AI-related stocks have recently experienced rotation and differentiation, AI remains one of the most significant sources of growth in the U.S. stock market from an earnings perspective. Goldman Sachs' assessment also suggests that the current bull market is not solely reliant on valuation expansion. The S&P 500 has risen nearly 20% over the past year, primarily driven by earnings growth rather than further increases in price-to-earnings ratios. However, the focus of the earnings season is shifting. Investors have largely accepted that major cloud providers like Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta will continue to invest heavily in capital expenditures. The real question has become whether these expenditures can generate sufficient revenue, profit margins, and cash flow. In other words, the market wants to see not just AI server orders, but also the return on investment from AI.

Comments

All Comments

Recommended for you

  • SanDisk's Pre-Market Gains Expand to 6%

    On August 14, SanDisk's pre-market gains expanded to 6%, reaching $1620 per share, following a nearly 14% surge in the previous trading session. Micron saw a pre-market increase of 3%. JPMorgan is optimistic about memory demand, assigning SanDisk an 'Overweight' rating with a target price of $2250.
  • July Loan Rates Remain Low

    Since the beginning of this year, China's loan rates have remained at a low level, continuing a downward trend in July. In July, the weighted average interest rate for new corporate loans was slightly below 3%, approximately 0.2 percentage points lower than the same period last year; the weighted average interest rate for new personal housing loans was about 3.1%, roughly unchanged from the same period last year. (Xinhua News Agency)
  • Scholar: Economic Shockwaves from US-Iran Conflict Spread, Trump Faces Internal and External Pressures

    Professor Simon Mabon from Lancaster University stated that as the economic consequences of the Iran war ripple across the globe, US President Trump is facing increasing domestic and international pressure. He pointed out that with the midterm elections approaching and inflation rising, this conflict has created political challenges within the US, while the global economy is also 'feeling the pinch'—affecting not only oil and diesel but also fertilizers and global shipping routes. Mabon noted that any goods transported through the Strait of Hormuz will be impacted, with rising transportation costs and insurance premiums ultimately passed on to end users.
  • Central Bank: M2 Increased by 7.7% Year-on-Year in July

    On August 14, the Central Bank reported that by the end of July, the balance of broad money (M2) was 355.51 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.7% year-on-year. The balance of narrow money (M1) was 115.46 trillion yuan, up 4% year-on-year. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 14.82 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.6%. In the first seven months, a net cash injection of 725.5 billion yuan was made.
  • SK Hynix Confirms 3.98 Trillion Won Loss Due to Convertible Bond Exchange and Stock Price Increase

    According to regulatory documents, SK Hynix confirmed a derivative trading loss of 3.98 trillion won related to the convertible bonds issued in April 2023 for the first half of 2026. This loss resulted from bondholders exercising their conversion rights and the increase in SK Hynix's stock price listed in South Korea. SK Hynix stated that the aforementioned accounting loss would not lead to actual cash outflows; at the same time, the gains from the disposal of treasury shares recognized when the convertible bonds were converted into shares have largely offset the related losses. The company noted that all convertible bonds had been converted into shares by the end of the first half, and therefore, there were no remaining derivative valuation losses related to this batch of convertible bonds as of the end of the period. (Bloomberg)
  • US Imposes Up to 100% Tariff on Imported Drones and Parts, Drone Stocks Rise Pre-Market, Unusual Machines Up Over 11%

    On August 14, drone-related stocks in the US market collectively rose in pre-market trading, with Unusual Machines increasing by over 11%, Red Cat Holdings and ParaZero Technologies up over 4%, Vertical Aerospace, Palladyne AI, and Ondas rising over 3%, and AgEagle Aerial Systems gaining nearly 3%. In a statement, the White House announced that President Trump signed a proclamation imposing tariffs ranging from 10% to 100% on imported drones and parts, citing national security threats. The proclamation specifies a 100% tariff on drones with highly sensitive specific sizes or functions, as well as docking stations for such drones and certain critical components. This category includes drones with a maximum takeoff weight exceeding 25 kilograms and those equipped with thermal imaging capabilities. Additionally, a 25% tariff will be applied to certain smaller drones and other drone components that do not possess specific functions. The announcement also states that a 15% tariff will be imposed on drones and components from the European Union, Japan, Liechtenstein, South Korea, and Switzerland. Furthermore, a 10% tariff will be levied on drones from the UK, provided that their hardware, software, and technology primarily originate from the aforementioned countries and regions, as well as the US. The tariffs are set to take effect 21 days after the signing, while tariffs on non-highly sensitive drone components will take effect 180 days after the signing.
  • U.S. Stock Market: Memory Chip Stocks Rise Before Opening, Micron and Western Digital Up Nearly 2%

    On August 14, continuing yesterday's upward trend, memory chip stocks in the U.S. market collectively rose before the opening. Among them, SanDisk surged over 4%, while Micron Technology, Western Digital, and Seagate Technology increased by more than 1%. Winbond Technology, SK Hynix, and Rambus saw gains of less than 1%.
  • SanDisk Stock Rises Over 5% in Pre-Market Trading

    On August 14, SanDisk's stock rose over 5% in pre-market trading. Royal Bank of Canada raised its target price for SanDisk from $1300 to $1600.
  • Reddit Rises 11.8% Pre-Market After Being Added to S&P 500 Index

    On August 14, Reddit (RDDT.US) saw a pre-market increase of 11.8%, reaching $176.8. This surge follows the announcement by S&P Dow Jones Indices that Reddit will be added to the S&P 500 Index next week through a non-routine adjustment. Reddit's previously released financial report indicated that it has achieved over 60% revenue growth for the eighth consecutive quarter, with second-quarter revenue increasing by 61% year-over-year to $805 million, and net profit attributable to shareholders rising by 183% year-over-year to $253 million, showcasing strong overall financial performance.