On September 15, former New York Fed President Dudley stated that the current justification for the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy is quite strong, and the rate hike in September may not be a 'one-off action,' but rather the beginning of a series of continuous rate increases. Dudley pointed out that the U.S. inflation rate remains persistently above the Fed's 2% target, the labor market remains relatively stable, and the core CPI rose by 0.3% month-over-month in August, further dispelling market concerns about cooling inflation. In his view, the Fed is currently deviating from its dual mandate regarding price stability, and there are still further upward risks to inflation in the short term. Dudley expects that the Fed may provide a median forecast in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) to be released in September, suggesting two cumulative rate hikes of 25 basis points each by 2026. He also noted that historically, the probability of the Fed raising rates again after a single hike has been as high as 85% to 90%, so the market should not view this round of actions as 'a mere taste.' Additionally, Dudley believes that if Waller decisively raises rates, it would help demonstrate his commitment to curbing inflation and the Fed's policy independence. He warned that Waller should not 'outsource' monetary policy to financial markets, and the future path of interest rates should be determined by the Fed based on economic data and its own policy judgment, rather than catering to market expectations.
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