On October 7, according to Jinshi Data, the Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes will be released at 2 AM Beijing time on Thursday. The minutes may further clarify why the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points in September and how officials assess the current monetary policy's tightness, potentially revealing how many more rate hikes are being considered. During the press conference following the September decision, Fed Chair Kevin Walsh stated that it is difficult to describe the overall financial conditions as 'restrictive.' The Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index indicates that U.S. financial conditions have continued to ease since their peak in the fall of 2022; the ICE BofA U.S. High Yield Bond Option-Adjusted Spread remains relatively narrow. Regarding inflation, the overall PCE in August rose 3.4% year-on-year, and the core PCE increased by 3.0%, both unchanged from July. The current effective federal funds rate is approximately 3.9%.
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