On July 28, ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, market uncertainty arises as monetary policy, AI capital expenditure, and geopolitical issues all enter a validation phase. While the market generally still expects the Fed to maintain its current stance, fluctuations in oil prices, ongoing tensions in the Middle East, and Waller's continued downplaying of forward guidance have led investors to gradually accept a new pricing model where "policy no longer provides answers, but data determines direction." Regardless of whether there is a rate hike this time, the market is more focused on how Waller will establish the Fed's policy credibility and whether it will accept higher market volatility in exchange for policy flexibility to control inflation. Another noteworthy change comes from the AI industry itself. Nvidia continues to expand its investments and financing in AI infrastructure, including OpenAI and SK Group, reflecting that AI competition is further evolving into a capital competition. However, as suppliers begin to offer guarantees, financing, and even directly assist clients in building data centers, the market starts to reassess whether the rapid growth of AI is accumulating higher financial leverage risks. The recent significant decline in semiconductor stocks in Japan and South Korea does not indicate a disappearance of AI demand, but rather that the market is beginning to evaluate whether high capital expenditures can sustainably translate into corporate cash flow and investment returns. This suggests that the AI narrative is gradually shifting from a "growth story" to a test of "capital efficiency." In the future, tech giants' earnings reports may see capital expenditure recovery efficiency, free cash flow, and AI investment returns becoming new valuation standards, in addition to revenue and profit. The situation in the Middle East maintains a typical pattern of "political cooling, unresolved energy risks." Trump has once again reserved a diplomatic window for Iran, reducing the risk of short-term comprehensive conflict, but Houthi forces continue to attack Saudi Arabian oil infrastructure, and uncertainties remain in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea shipping routes, meaning energy supply risks have not truly disappeared. This indicates that even if oil prices temporarily decline, energy premiums may still repeatedly influence market expectations for inflation, giving the Fed more hawkish space in its policy choices. The core factors truly affecting the market this week will not be a single event itself, but rather the simultaneous validation of three aspects: whether the Fed is willing to accept higher volatility to maintain its anti-inflation credibility; whether the AI industry can prove that massive capital expenditures can ultimately translate into corporate profits; and whether the earnings reports of tech giants are sufficient to support the currently high market valuations. In the context of policy, liquidity, and corporate fundamentals all undergoing market scrutiny, the sources of asset price volatility will increasingly lean towards fundamentals and capital efficiency, rather than relying solely on policy expectations or AI narratives.