On October 23, Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett stated in a recent client report that the current global market risk aversion may continue until mid-November. He emphasized a tactical caution towards risk assets until the uncertainties surrounding AI financing risks, pressure in the French bond market, and the U.S. midterm elections are alleviated. In terms of liquidity, although investors are shifting towards defensive positions, technology stocks remain crowded. EPFR Global data shows that technology stock funds recorded the largest inflow since July in the past week, while Bank of America's October fund manager survey indicates that global investors' allocation to technology stocks has reached its highest level since August 2020. Hartnett believes that if the credit spreads related to AI super cloud companies peak, it could signal an important improvement in risk appetite. He is also monitoring the yield on French 10-year government bonds and the France-Germany yield spread, as well as the policy uncertainties surrounding the U.S. midterm elections on November 3. Until these risks are re-priced, the market may maintain a defensive stance in the short term.
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