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AI Stock Sell-off and US Treasury Yields Exceed 5% Lead to Decline in US Markets

On Monday, all three major US stock indices closed lower: the Dow Jones fell by 152 points (0.3%), the S&P 500 dropped by 0.5%, and the Nasdaq decreased by approximately 0.6%; stock index futures remained largely flat on Monday evening. The sell-off of AI-related stocks was a major drag—Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei called for a slowdown in AI development, and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman ruled out the possibility of an IPO this year over the weekend. Nvidia fell by 3%, Corning dropped by 13%, and the iShares AI Innovation and Technology Active ETF (BAI) fell nearly 4%. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury briefly surpassed 5% on Monday, marking the highest level since October 2023. Saudi Arabia closed a key pipeline bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent crude oil settling above $105 per barrel and WTI closing over $101. Market focus is shifting to the Federal Reserve's decision on Wednesday, with federal funds futures indicating a roughly 92% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike, raising the target rate ceiling to 4.0%. Christopher Hodge, Chief Economist for the US at Natixis, expects this to be the first rate hike of the Waller era, and that the Federal Reserve will emphasize that this decision is isolated and does not commit to future actions in subsequent meetings. The Asia-Pacific markets opened lower on Tuesday, with the Nikkei 225 down 0.25% and the Korean Kospi down 0.43%.

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