On September 15, Saifedean, author of 'Bitcoin Standard,' stated that Bitcoin's power consumption may have peaked, and it may never consume as much electricity as it did in 2024-2025. Even if this is not the case, due to mining economics and the halving mechanism, this dynamic is expected to become a reality at some point in the coming years. He noted that Bitcoin mining once benefited from a structural long-term tailwind: the rate at which block rewards increased in value during each cycle far outpaced the rate at which halving reduced the number of Bitcoins. This tailwind has now disappeared. Although the average price of Bitcoin has increased by 2.56 times, the nominal reward income of the current cycle is only 28% higher than that of the previous cycle; when accounting for dollar depreciation, the increase is nearly zero. Meanwhile, Bitcoin mining difficulty has not reached a new high for 305 days since hitting a record on October 30, 2025, marking the second-longest period without a new difficulty high in Bitcoin's history. The Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance estimates that Bitcoin's annualized power demand peak may occur in December 2025, at approximately 190 terawatt-hours, dropping to the range of 130 terawatt-hours by mid-2026, while AI is raising the opportunity cost of high-quality mining infrastructure. The fundamentals of Bitcoin suggest it is likely to continue growing, but Bitcoin mining and its power consumption may have already peaked. The article also points out that March 14, 2024, could become the day with the highest reward value in Bitcoin mining history, with a price of $73,800 and a block reward of 6.25 BTC, corresponding to a daily reward of about $65 million. If the price does not reach $147,600 before this halving, it will be the first cycle where the daily mining reward does not exceed the previous cycle's peak.
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