According to 10x Research market analysis, since Donald Trump's election in November last year, the US stock market has erased all gains, despite initial expectations that the election would drive stronger growth and lower taxes. The expected rebound in the cryptocurrency market after the election quickly faded on December 6th last year, and trading volume has since dropped significantly, with funding rates peaking on that date, indicating its importance.

Macro-economic factors are the main driving force behind the cycles of Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September due to weak labor market and economic recession expectations, but subsequent data has shown different trends.

Although non-farm employment only increased by 12,000 in October, it rebounded to 227,000 in November, and data released on January 10th showed strong growth again, with 256,000 new jobs added in January and the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1%. These data suggest that the original intention of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut was flawed and weakened the basis for the interest rate cut cycle.