The information, opinions, and judgments regarding markets, projects, and currencies mentioned in this report are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.Written by  0xBrooker

BTC daily chart

BTC opened at $111,137.35 this week and closed at $115,314.13, with a low of $110,600.00 and a high of $116,665.63, up 3.77% and with a volatility of 5.61%. Trading volume continued to shrink compared to last week.

The global market is in the final stage of the game of "revising expectations for interest rate cuts," and the price of BTC has fluctuated over the past week based on the flow of funds and changes in industry policies.

The employment data was generally in line with expectations of a "slightly cool down" situation, which pushed the probability of a rate cut in September to over 90%, and the market is increasingly pricing in three rate cuts of 73 basis points this year.

Under this expectation, the US dollar index and both short- and long-term Treasury bonds hovered at low levels, while US stocks and gold prices both hit record highs during the week. BTC rebounded again, and the Altseason proceeded in an orderly manner. The market may experience volatility after the Fed's rate cut next week, but this does not change the medium- to long-term upward trend.

Policy, macro-financial and economic data

This week, the market remains caught in a tension between "moderately declining economic and employment data" and "slightly rising inflation data."

On September 9th, the U.S. Department of Labor released its baseline change in non-farm payrolls for 2025, revising it down to 911,000 from a projected downward revision of 700,000. This downward revision exceeded market expectations and also surpassed Treasury Secretary Bessant's media prediction of -800,000. This revision reinforces the assessment that the labor market is weaker than previously estimated, impacting policy expectations and risk asset pricing. The Nasdaq rose slightly that day.

On September 10, the US released its August PPI year-on-year rate, which was expected to be 3.3%, but the actual figure was 2.6%. The decline in the producer purchase index will undoubtedly help alleviate the pressure transmitted to the consumer side, and is seen as a slight positive factor.

On September 11, the US released its seasonally adjusted CPI for the end of August, showing an annualized rate of 2.9%, in line with expectations. The seasonally adjusted monthly CPI was 0.4%, higher than the expected 0.3%. Increases were driven by factors including accommodation, food, and energy; core inflation remained flat month-on-month, while year-on-year inflation rose slightly. The CPI rebound did not exceed market expectations, which is conducive to interest rate cuts, and both US stocks and Bitcoin responded with gains.

On September 12, the University of Michigan released data showing that the preliminary one-year inflation rate expectation was 4.8%, slightly higher than the expected 4.7%, and the consumer confidence index was 55.4, lower than the expected value of 58, declining for two consecutive months, indicating that long-term inflation expectations are rising.

This week's economic and employment data generally maintained the previous assessment of a coexistence of "economic slowdown" and "inflation rebound," leaning more towards "economic slowdown." Coupled with Powell's previous "shift" comments, the market is tilting towards the most optimistic pricing of an interest rate cut. Currently, FedWatch has priced in a September rate cut at 100%, including a 50 basis point price of 6.6%, bringing the total year-to-date rate cut to 75 basis points.

As a result, the US dollar index fell, and long-term Treasury yields dipped slightly. The Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones rose 2.03%, 1.59%, and 0.95% respectively for the week, all hitting record highs. Gold rose 1.12% for the week, also reaching a record high.

In line with the Nasdaq, BTC rose X% for the week, but did not approach the all-time high reached in August. This was due to a reduction in the acquisition efforts of Treasury companies and a change in the trend of funds flowing into Altcoins.

Crypto Market

Amid rising expectations of interest rate cuts and potentially larger increases, BTC rebounded 3.77% this week, closing at $ 115,314.13 , following a 2.66% rebound last week . Technically, BTC has climbed back above the "first uptrend line of the bull market" and the 60-day moving average, reversing its short-term weakness and showing signs of medium-term strength.

Recent factors suppressing BTC price increases include weakening buying power from treasury firms, reduced inflows into the Spot ETF, and funds flowing from Cryptocurrency exchanges to Altcoins. This week, the situation has improved.

BTC Fund Inflow and Outflow Statistics (Weekly)

According to eMerge Engine data, the BTC Spot ETF channel saw a continuous inflow of 2.355 billion this week, the highest weekly inflow since August. Treasury purchases totaled 317 million, remaining at a low level. This is the fundamental reason why BTC saw a strong rebound this week, but has yet to reach a new high.

The trend of funds flowing from BTC to ETH continues, with ETH rising 6.93% this week, approaching its all-time high. Meanwhile, the altseason is starting, with the upward momentum spreading from ETH to other strong-performing cryptocurrencies: SOL rose 16.19% this week, HYPE rose 14%, and DOGE rose 21.5%.

Cyclical Indicators

According to eMerge Engine, the EMC BTC Cycle Metrics is 0.375, indicating it is in an upward continuation phase.

EMC Labs was founded in April 2023 by crypto asset investors and data scientists. Focusing on blockchain industry research and cryptocurrency secondary market investment, EMC Labs leverages industry foresight , insights, and data mining as its core competencies. It is committed to participating in the booming blockchain industry through research and investment, driving the benefits of blockchain and crypto assets to humanity.

For more information, please visit: https://www.emc.fund