What to know:
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan joined CoinDesk's Markets Outlook on Monday, he said crypto is in the late stages of a bear-market bottom, setting up a choppy but constructive path toward a stronger 2026.
What Hougan is seeing: The CIO said recent weakness doesn’t change his long-term bullish view.
- Crypto spent much of 2025 in a bear market, with many altcoins down more than 60%, Hougan said.
- Bitcoin avoided steeper losses largely due to sustained buying from corporations and ETFs, according to Hougan.
- He described current conditions as a “rounding bottom” marked by weak ETF flows and muted retail participation.
Where bitcoin trades from here: Expect patience before the next leg higher.
- Hougan expects bitcoin to trade sideways between roughly $75,000 and $100,000 in the first half of the year.
- “There’s still a lot of Bitcoin for sale around $100,000,” he said, pointing to options-market positioning.
- A breakout is more likely later in the year as regulatory clarity improves and macro risks are digested.
Why precious metals matter: Gold’s rally reinforces bitcoin’s long-term case.
- Hougan said the surge in gold reflects global concerns about fiat currencies and asset seizure risk.
- Silver, he added, looks like a late-stage momentum trade, similar to a speculative altcoin rally.
- Over time, he expects those dynamics to funnel demand toward bitcoin as a superior form of self-custody and settlement.
Central banks are circling, slowly: Interest is rising, but adoption is years away.
- Hougan said Bitwise has already held meetings with central banks across multiple regions.
- Those institutions are still asking fundamental questions about bitcoin’s security and risks, not implementation details.
- He expects central banks to eventually own bitcoin — potentially more than gold — but said the timeline is likely 10 to 20 years.
The $6.5 million bitcoin call: A long-term bet on monetary reality.
- Hougan reiterated his view that bitcoin could reach roughly $6.5 million per coin over the next 20 years.
- The core assumption, he said, is not accelerating adoption but the continuation of global debt growth, money printing and currency debasement.
- He argued bitcoin is a superior version of gold and that central banks are only beginning to understand its role.
- “As long as the future isn’t dramatically different from the last 15 years,” Hougan said, “we get there. It’s just a matter of time.”
Zooming out: Volatility compression is key for institutions.
- Hougan said declining bitcoin volatility is critical for institutional adoption.
- He often tells allocators bitcoin is now less volatile than Nvidia, a stock many already own.
- Bitwise expects volatility to keep falling while bitcoin remains the fastest-growing major financial asset.
Final take: Short-term chop, long-term conviction.
- Hougan said regulatory clarity in Washington could accelerate the next bull phase, but isn’t required for crypto’s long-term trajectory.
- Even without clarity, he expects ETFs, stablecoins and tokenization to keep expanding.
- “The fundamentals are really good,” he said. “The stars are aligned for a good 2026.”
Watch the full interview.
All Comments