Cointime

Download App
iOS & Android

Trump win fuels bitcoin derivatives boom as futures open interest surges over $60 billion

Cointime Official

From theblock by Brian McGleenon

Since Donald Trump’s U.S. presidential election victory on Nov. 5, bitcoin futures open interest has risen sharply, signaling increased trading activity and market speculation. Despite the surge, analysts from Bitfinex maintain that leveraged trades are not at risk of an imminent market correction.

Bitcoin  BTC +1.00% futures open interest jumped from $39 billion on Nov. 5 to currently stand at $60.9 billion, according to datafrom Coinglass. This represents a substantial increase in the value of positions tied to bitcoin derivatives contracts, many of which involve leverage.

Bitfinex analysts explained to The Block that the build-up in open interest appears organic, driven by expectations of future price appreciation. “Leverage build-up is a common tool for traders, including institutions, to position for anticipated price movements,” they said.

They also noted a slight reduction in open interest as of Nov. 22, particularly around the $94,000 level, where significant sitting orders were filled. “We don’t see the recent leverage build-up as anything out of the ordinary. The price retesting the $93,000 region was a normal pullback,” the analysts added.

Bitget CEO Gracy Chen believes Trump’s election victory has acted as a catalyst for the heightened leverage in the market. "The high leverage in the market proves that investors are beginning to value the market based on technical and regulatory improvements and the surge in open interest is a good thing, fueled by the conviction of a better environment under Trump that can help bitcoin thrive," Chen told The Block. However, Chen noted that price corrections, potentially in the form of long squeezes, are possible due to bitcoin's inherent volatility and could serve to stabilize the market when leverage becomes excessive.

Ethereum outperforming bitcoin over the past week

While bitcoin reclaimed the $95,000 level after the release of the latest PCE price index, ether has emerged as the standout performer. Ether has rallied over 5% on Nov. 27 to a high of $3,600, with analysts pointing to a capital rotation from bitcoin to ether.

“Bitcoin dominance has dropped from its high of 61.5%, and the ETH/BTC pair is holding strong, currently at 0.03760, up 17.8% from last week,” analysts at QCP Capital noted. They believe ether is on track to test the 0.0400 level, signaling continued strength relative to bitcoin.

Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have also seen robust inflows, with $90.1 million added on Wednesday, marking a four-day winning streak. “Ethereum’s recent strength supports the case for a retest of its all-time high of $4,868, a potential 35.4% upside from current levels,” QCP Capital analysts added.

  The global cryptocurrency market capitalization rose by 2.1% over the past 24 hours, reaching $3.4 trillion, according to data from CoinGecko. Bitcoin remains dominant at 54.7%, while ether accounts for 12.4% of the market.  

Comments

All Comments

Recommended for you

  • BTC Surpasses $84,000

    Market data shows that BTC has surpassed $84,000, currently priced at $84,004, with a 24-hour decline of 0.25%. The market is experiencing significant volatility, so please ensure proper risk management.

  • BTC Falls Below $84,000

    Market data shows that BTC has fallen below $84,000, currently priced at $83,988.06, with a 24-hour increase of 0.52%. The market is experiencing significant volatility, so please ensure proper risk management.

  • ETH Falls Below $2700

    Market data shows that ETH has fallen below $2700, currently priced at $2699.7, with a 24-hour increase of 1.95%. The market is experiencing significant volatility, so please ensure proper risk management.

  • BTC Surpasses $85,000

    Market data shows that BTC has surpassed $85,000, currently priced at $85,000.02, with a 24-hour increase of 1.72%. The market is highly volatile, so please ensure proper risk management.

  • ETH Surpasses $2700

    Market data shows that ETH has surpassed $2700, currently priced at $2700.14, with a 24-hour increase of 1.23%. The market is experiencing significant fluctuations, so please ensure proper risk management.

  • Yushu Technology's Wang Xingxing: Key to Breakthrough in Embodied Intelligence Lies in Solving Millimeter-Level Error Issues

    On September 25, the 5th Global Digital Trade Expo was held in Hangzhou, where Wang Xingxing, founder of Yushu Technology, delivered a keynote speech titled "From Machinery to Intelligence - The Evolutionary Theory of Embodied Future." Wang stated that the embodied intelligence industry may soon experience a critical breakthrough similar to that of ChatGPT. He believes that when robots can complete approximately 80% of tasks through voice interaction and embodied intelligence capabilities in about 80% of unfamiliar environments, the industry will enter a critical phase of large-scale application. He pointed out that the ability for robots to understand and execute specific tasks based on voice commands has already made breakthroughs last year, but the industry still faces a core technological bottleneck, namely the precise matching issue between artificial intelligence models and the real physical world. Wang noted that currently, robots still have a few millimeters of error during actual operations, which limits their stability and reliability in complex environments. "In the future, whoever can solve this problem will fundamentally resolve the issues with robots."

  • Swissquote Analyst Warns AI Narrative is a Core Pillar of US Stocks, Potential Break Could Trigger Significant Correction

    On September 25, Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, stated that broad market indices and retirement funds are now deeply tied to the AI wave, with technology stocks accounting for about 40% of the S&P 500 index. She pointed out that the market capitalization weight of just three chip manufacturers makes up over 25% of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. Ozkardeskaya indicated that AI has become the 'core pillar' of the market, and this pillar 'must not show any cracks.' She believes that, in the short term, the US stock market will continue to be supported by seasonal factors, and the current market uptrend may extend until the end of the year. However, she also warned that the worst-case scenario would be a shake in the investment logic surrounding AI, which could undermine market confidence in the AI narrative, potentially triggering a significant market correction.

  • U.S. Stock Index Futures Turn Positive; Chip Stocks Rally in After-Hours Trading

    On September 25, U.S. stock index futures rose into positive territory, with Nasdaq futures up 0.36%. In after-hours trading, storage and semiconductor stocks saw widespread gains, with AMD, Intel, and SanDisk all rising by 2%.

  • NEAR Partners with Ondo to Launch 20 Tokenized US Stocks and ETFs

    On September 25, according to Cryptonews, NEAR Protocol and Ondo Finance have launched trading for tokenized US stocks and ETFs on near.com, with an initial offering of 20 assets including Nvidia, Tesla, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, as well as SPY and QQQ. Eligible users can deposit using over 30 supported stablecoins or other crypto assets, with NEAR Intents serving as the cross-chain distribution layer, allowing similar assets to be routed to connected wallets and DeFi protocols in the future. Purchases are settled in USDon, which is backed 1:1 by US dollars in brokerage accounts, and completed via atomic swaps. This product is not available to US persons; the overall Ondo platform has launched over 100 assets, with NEAR initially offering only one-fifth of that.

  • Meta Achieves Best Monthly Performance Since 2013, Market Value Approaches $2 Trillion

    On September 25, Meta is experiencing a strong rebound driven by AI expectations, with the popularity of its personal AI assistant Muse serving as a significant catalyst for this rally. The company's stock had faced considerable pressure earlier this year, but it quickly rebounded in September. As of September 24, the stock price has risen approximately 36% this month, marking the strongest single-month performance since 2013, with its market value nearing $2 trillion, just about 1% away from this milestone.