Cointime

Download App
iOS & Android

Reviewing the "version's son" of US stocks: Deconstructing the holding logic and era prediction of a 24-year-old genius investor - Leopold

Recently, 24-year-old Leopold Aschenbrenner has become the most dazzling star in the US stock market - his AI hedge fund managed by him skyrocketed from $1 billion to $5.5 billion in just one year, and within just six months of its establishment, its performance exceeded the S&P 500 index by eight times. Most people are amazed by his youth and earnings, but rarely delve into the core logic behind his holdings. In fact, the limited podcast's detailed analysis of its 13F report two months ago has now been widely implemented, and this foresight in advance layout is precisely the key to his outstanding performance. Today, we will review the investment logic of this' son of the US stock version 'and understand his paradigm shift from chips to infrastructure.

Leopold's investment starting point is with a depth and foresight that surpasses his peers. He once wrote a 165 page paper titled 'Situational Awareness', in which he boldly predicted that General Artificial Intelligence (AGI) would be achieved by 2027, and all of his portfolio layouts revolved around this core prediction. From initially betting on the GPU craze to now shifting towards energy and infrastructure, his investment logic has always been one step ahead of the market, avoiding crowded tracks and accurately capturing opportunities in industry bottlenecks.

###Investment paradigm transition: from chips to infrastructure, escaping the crowded track

Leopold's most disruptive operation is undoubtedly clearing a group of AI chip leaders and shifting their focus to energy and infrastructure. He decisively sold stocks of popular AI infrastructure companies such as NVIDIA, Broadcom, TSMC, and Micron, and even sold $300 million worth of NVIDIA put options (and profited from it). The core judgment behind this is that by the end of 2025 to the beginning of 2026, the market has fully reflected the value of GPUs, the dividends of the chip race have been fully tapped, and the next core bottleneck of the AI industry lies in energy and infrastructure.

His judgment hits the pain point of the industry: the current power grid is designed for human daily needs and cannot bear the huge energy consumption of AI data centers. With the advancement of AGI research and development, the demand for electricity in AI laboratories will grow exponentially, and energy supply and infrastructure construction will become key variables restricting the development of AI - this is precisely the core logic behind his decision to abandon chips and turn to investing in the physical world. This kind of thinking of "escaping the crowded track in advance and laying out the next bottleneck" is the key to his ability to outperform the market.

###Core heavy warehouse: Bloom Energy, betting on the 'hidden champion' of AI energy solutions

In Leopold's investment portfolio, Bloom Energy is the absolute core - accounting for up to 20% and holding $855 million, making it his largest investment target. The reason why this previously unknown company was able to secure its heavy position bet lies in its precise match with the energy demand of the AI era.

Bloom Energy focuses on developing oxide fuel cell equipment, with its core advantage being the ability to directly convert natural gas into electricity that can be used in AI data centers. The product is modular, can be quickly deployed, and does not rely on existing power grids. For AI laboratories, this means that they can completely overcome the energy consumption bottleneck of the power grid, directly build power supply equipment next to the data center, and obtain stable electricity at an efficient cost, solving the energy pain points of AI training and reasoning.

Fundamental data also supports this bet: Bloom Energy's demand backlog orders are as high as $20 billion, with revenue growth of about 34% in 2025 and an expected increase of another 40% in 2026, showing a situation of demand exceeding supply. Leopold sees it as the 'Nvidia of energy', betting on its monopolistic potential in AI energy solutions - after all, AI can replace software jobs but cannot create energy out of thin air, which is also one of the core logics behind his investment in the physical world.

###Taking shortcuts: Bitcoin mining companies+CoreWeave lock in core AI infrastructure resources

In addition to Bloom Energy, another major highlight of Leopold's layout is the clever targeting of core resources in AI infrastructure through investments in Bitcoin mining companies and CoreWeave, taking a shortcut of "overtaking on a bend".

He has significantly increased his holdings in CoreWeave, with a cumulative investment of $800 million. As a "new cloud service provider", CoreWeave's core business is to provide one-stop services such as GPU deployment, power supply, and cooling system maintenance for AI laboratories. When AI laboratories accumulate a large number of GPUs, the subsequent infrastructure construction and operation are the real necessities, which is also the core reason why Leopold values it. In addition, he also holds approximately 10% of CoreWeave's main supplier, Core Scientific, forming a collaborative layout of "GPU operation and maintenance+energy grid construction".

Even more surprisingly, he sold a large number of Bitcoin mining companies, not because he was optimistic about the cryptocurrency market, but because he was interested in the core assets of mining companies: land and electricity. Bitcoin mining requires a large amount of energy and space, which are precisely the core requirements of AI data centers. More importantly, these mining companies already have ready-made power grid access rights and related licenses - which usually take months or even years to apply for. Leopold, by acquiring mining companies, directly bypasses the licensing process and quickly obtains the core resources needed for AI infrastructure, which is equivalent to "taking over a bar with a liquor license instead of applying for it himself", efficiently and accurately.

###Short selling logic: betting on the end of IT outsourcing and practicing the trend of AI substitution

Leopold's investment logic is not only reflected in his long position, but his short position also conforms to the trend of the times - he extensively shorted Infosys, a company focused on IT outsourcing in India.

The core of Infosys' business model is to rely on low-cost labor to undertake IT outsourcing business in Western countries. But Leopold believes that with the rise of AI tools such as Claude Code and GPT Codex 5.3, AI can not only automate simple tasks, but also handle complex IT processes. The advantage of cheap labor will be completely weakened, and the IT outsourcing industry will come to an end. He practiced this judgment with real money and shorted Infosys, hedging market risks and once again confirming his profound understanding of AI trends.

###Investment philosophy: Return to the physical world and bet on core assets that cannot be replaced by AI

All of Leopold's holdings revolve around a core investment philosophy: companies that rely solely on software will face difficulties in the future; The assets of the physical world - manufacturing, factories, energy, and infrastructure - cannot be replaced by AI and are also the core investment direction for the future.

In his view, AI can generate software and automate processes, but it cannot create energy out of thin air, build infrastructure quickly, or obtain scarce grid licenses - these physical assets that require manpower, legislation, and time accumulation are the most core bottlenecks and long-term investment targets in the AGI era. This is also the underlying logic behind his shift from chips (the combination of software and hardware) to energy, land, and infrastructure: energy is a scarce resource that no one can meet, while infrastructure is the prerequisite for the landing of AI. Only by focusing on the core of "providing power for future AI" can we capture the most essential opportunities.

###Controversy and Prospect: Genius Carnival or Long Term Winner?

Despite Leopold's stunning performance, the market's controversy over him has never stopped. Some people question whether the 24-year-old lacks long-term investment experience, and his fund layout is too concentrated, almost a single theme bet - if the growth rate of AI infrastructure spending slows down or macroeconomic changes occur, the entire investment portfolio will face huge downward pressure and lack sufficient hedging space.

But it cannot be denied that every prediction he makes accurately follows industry trends: betting on chips before the GPU boom, laying out Bloom Energy before energy bottlenecks emerge, and shorting Infosys before IT outsourcing declines. His investment portfolio is more like a "real-time tracking tool" for bottlenecks in the AI race, always leading the market by one step.

Nowadays, Google、Amazon、 Technology giants such as NVIDIA have committed $650 billion in capital expenditures, focusing on AI infrastructure and energy solutions, which is highly aligned with Leopold's layout. His success is not only a manifestation of talent, but also a profound insight into industry trends - not chasing hotspots, not blindly following the market, but starting from the underlying logic, finding the underestimated core bottleneck, using high belief and high concentration layout to capture the dividends of the times.

In the future, whether Leopold can continue to create miracles will need time to test - after all, great investors do not rely on a single year's explosion, but on long-term stable compound interest growth. But in any case, this 24-year-old genius's position logic provides us with a new perspective: in the era of AI, the real opportunity may not be in the noisy software and chip race, but in those silent and irreplaceable physical worlds.

Comments

All Comments

Recommended for you

  • Upbit to Launch RE KRW, BTC, and USDT Trading Pairs

    On June 19, according to an official announcement, Upbit will launch RE trading pairs with KRW, BTC, and USDT.

  • IRGC: Ready to Inflict a Crushing Defeat on Enemies

    On June 19, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issued a statement today, asserting that the remarks made by Iran's Supreme Leader Mujtaba regarding the Iran-U.S. memorandum of understanding "further solidified the united front of the Iranian people, enabling them and the armed forces to more resolutely safeguard the achievements of victory, and providing invaluable resources for Iranian politicians in their pursuit of national rights." The statement indicated that the aggressors have faced defeat on the battlefield — they once threatened to "wipe Iran off the map" and "send Iran back to the Stone Age," but now they are "desperately retreating to the point of begging for understanding and negotiation," bowing their heads before the Iranian people. The statement warned that if the enemies attempt to make unreasonable demands again, infringing upon the rights of the Iranian nation as they have in the past, the IRGC will be fully prepared to respond with even greater strength across land, sea, air, and all hybrid warfare domains — ready to deliver a more devastating historical defeat to the enemies as soon as the Supreme Leader gives the order. (CCTV International News)

  • CFTC and SEC Seek Public Input to Clarify 'Swaps' Regulatory Definition

    On June 19, in the context of related litigation at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) jointly issued a public request for comments, planning to update and clarify the definitions and regulatory interpretations of certain derivative products. This inquiry covers a wide range of topics, including the definition of 'swaps', the definition of 'security-based swaps', and the delineation of the exemptions applicable to these definitions. The two agencies are also seeking public input on the regulatory treatment of new or emerging financial products, which may include event contracts on prediction market platforms and perpetual futures/perpetual contracts. CFTC Chairman Michael S. Selig stated in a press release: 'Today's joint public request for comments provides an opportunity to address the long-standing regulatory ambiguities in Title VII of the Dodd-Frank Act. These ambiguities have been hindering fair competition and responsible innovation.' According to Title VII of the Dodd-Frank Act, the CFTC has regulatory authority over swap products, except for security-based swaps. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins also noted in a statement that clarifying certain definitions has become urgent, particularly regarding the regulatory classification of event-driven products.

  • Morgan Stanley Submits Revised ETF Applications for Ethereum and SOL, Disclosing Lowest Market Fees

    On June 19, Morgan Stanley submitted revised filings for spot Ethereum and Solana ETFs, marking new progress in the review process following the approval of Bitcoin ETFs. The Wall Street investment bank filed updated S-1 registration statements for the two ETFs with the U.S. SEC on Thursday. This is the second update to the applications for the Ethereum and Solana ETFs originally submitted in January. The latest S-1 documents reveal that both ETFs will have an issuance fee rate set at 0.14%, making them the lowest fee products in the U.S. market for Ethereum and Solana ETFs. According to SoSoValue data, the current fee rate for Grayscale's mini Ethereum trust is 0.15%, the lowest in the Ethereum sector, while Franklin Templeton's Solana ETF SOEZ has a fee rate of 0.19%, the lowest in the Solana segment. The revised filings also disclose that Figment, Galaxy blockchain infrastructure company, and Canada’s Coinbase will serve as the staking service providers for the products. Morgan Stanley's upcoming ETH and SOL ETFs plan to stake a portion of their holdings to earn additional staking rewards. The documents specify that 5% of the staking earnings will be allocated as service fees for the staking service providers and custodians.

  • Fidelity Launches Money Market Fund for Stablecoin Issuers Aligned with the GENIUS Act

    On June 19, Fidelity Investments launched a new government money market fund designed as a reserve storage tool for stablecoin issuing institutions. The fund, named Fidelity Digital Reserve Fund (Ticker: FYMXX), aims to achieve current income while ensuring principal safety and maintaining high liquidity, as stated in its prospectus. The fund shares are exclusively available to institutional investors, including various stablecoin issuers, and the product was officially established on June 15. The prospectus specifies: 'The fund shares are expected to be primarily held by one or more stablecoin issuers as part or all of their reserve assets for issuing stablecoins to users.' This new fund will only invest in compliant reserve assets permitted for stablecoin issuers under the GENIUS Act, including U.S. Treasury bills, medium-term notes, long-term government bonds, cash, overnight repurchase agreements, and other government money market funds that meet stablecoin regulatory requirements. The minimum initial subscription amount for the fund is set at $1 million, although the fund company can independently decide to waive or reduce this threshold. The product aims to maintain a stable net asset value of $1 per share, with an annual management fee rate of 0.25%.

  • BTC Falls Below $63,000

    Market data shows that BTC has fallen below $63,000, currently priced at $62,967.9, with a 24-hour decline of 3.7%. The market is experiencing significant volatility, so please ensure proper risk management.

  • ETH Falls Below $1700

    Market data shows that ETH has fallen below $1700, currently priced at $1699.82, with a 24-hour decline of 3.79%. The market is experiencing significant volatility, so please ensure proper risk management.

  • Oaktree Capital Founder: Cautionary Investors May Miss Historic Investment Opportunities

    On June 18, Howard Marks, co-founder of Oaktree Capital, discussed whether the current market is experiencing 'irrational exuberance' and the opportunities and risks under the AI investment boom in a recent podcast. He noted that the current market can be described using Alan Greenspan's words from 30 years ago; we are in a 'boom,' but no one can definitively say whether it is 'irrational.' Using SpaceX's impending IPO with a valuation of nearly $2 trillion as an example, he stated that deciding whether to participate and at what price is purely a matter of 'guessing,' and cannot be calculated like traditional value investing. Howard mentioned his favorite saying: 'Cautious individuals struggle to achieve great things.' He pointed out a current investment dilemma: investing in tech giants may lead to significant mistakes, but it can also yield remarkable successes. Those who hesitate out of fear of risk may miss out on the greatest investment opportunity in human history. In contrast, investors in traditional industries such as transportation, retail distribution, and real estate are unlikely to make catastrophic investment errors, but they also cannot seize the monumental benefits of this transformative era. In terms of valuation, Howard provided a key reference: the current price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 is about 23 times, which is approximately 50% higher than the 80-year average of 16 times, but far lower than the 32 times during the 2000 internet bubble and below the 60 to 90 times level of the 'Nifty Fifty' era, indicating that overall it is 'high but not out of control.' Regarding AI investments, he proposed a three-tiered investment strategy: investing in large-scale tech companies is a low-risk approach due to their established business and cash flow; investing in vertical AI companies like Anthropic and OpenAI carries higher risks but also a higher probability of survival; while investing in early-stage startups is akin to gambling, where most will lose everything, but a few will become extremely wealthy. He advised investors to choose where they want to invest on the risk spectrum, mix different positions along the spectrum, and then determine what proportion these companies should represent in their overall investment portfolio.

  • Ethereum Foundation Co-Executive Director Hsiao-Wei Wang Announces Resignation

    Hsiao-Wei Wang, Co-Executive Director of the Ethereum Foundation, issued a statement announcing her decision to formally resign from her positions as Co-Executive Director and board member of the Ethereum Foundation, effective immediately after her leave. Wang stated that her time off allowed her to reassess her personal priorities and future plans, leading her to step back at this juncture and dedicate more time to her family and personal life. In her statement, Wang reflected on her contributions to the Ethereum ecosystem over the past decade, emphasizing that the true strength of Ethereum comes from the decentralized infrastructure maintained by global developers, researchers, validators, node operators, and community builders, rather than any single role or organization. She noted that although she is leaving the foundation's management, she will continue to support ecosystem development as a community member. Vitalik Buterin subsequently expressed his gratitude, stating that Wang has been one of the most steadfast contributors to the Ethereum ecosystem over the past ten years, not only advancing research and consensus mechanisms but also establishing an active local community in Taipei, Taiwan. Vitalik remarked that during a critical transformation period for Ethereum, Wang took on the foundation's most challenging management responsibilities and completed her mission with a high degree of professionalism and prudence.

  • Accenture Plummets Over 17%, Dragging Down IT Services Sector

    On June 18, the IT services sector declined, with Accenture dropping over 17%. Wipro and Cognizant fell nearly 8%, IBM decreased by 6.6%, Infosys dropped by 5.7%, and Global Data fell by over 3%. In news, Accenture reported an unexpected 2% decline in third-quarter orders, indicating that the industry continues to face fundamental uncertainties amid the 'AI disruption' superstorm led by AI application leader Anthropic. The company expects fourth-quarter revenue to be in the range of $17.75 billion to $18.4 billion, below the analyst consensus estimate of approximately $18.47 billion.