Market sentiment continues to cool down, and Bitcoin's current adjustment has entered a deeply pessimistic range. According to the latest data from Galaxy Research, the US Bitcoin spot ETP is experiencing the strongest and longest scale capital outflow in history, with prices deeply retreating, on chain indicators weakening across the board, and market sentiment falling to a multi-year trough. But through the panic market and capital outflow data, the cyclical pattern of Bitcoin's four-year cycle has once again become apparent, and the historical market trajectory highly replicates past bull and bear markets, providing clear time and price references for the bottom range of the future market.

1、 Epic capital outflow: 13 consecutive days of outflows, breaking historical records

The most obvious bearish signal for this round of Bitcoin adjustment comes from the continuous withdrawal of funds from spot ETP. Data shows that the US Bitcoin spot ETP has achieved net outflows of funds for 13 consecutive trading days, setting a record for the longest outflow period since the product was launched in January 2024.

Within just 13 trading days, the cumulative outflow of funds from Bitcoin ETP reached $4.33 billion, equivalent to approximately 60000 BTC; Expanding to a 20 day rolling cycle, the outflow scale further climbed to 5.42 billion US dollars (approximately 73000 BTC), breaking the historical record for the largest outflow in the 20 day range of this category.

The withdrawal of funds is not a short-term phenomenon, and the market has entered a sustained cooling channel. As of now, Bitcoin's ETP has recorded net outflows for four consecutive weeks, and institutional funds continue to withdraw from spot products, becoming the core main factor suppressing the market.

2、 Price cuts deeply, market sentiment falls into extreme fear zone

With the continuous outflow of funds, the price of Bitcoin continues to decline, and the trend of market weakness is clear. During the writing period, Bitcoin fell below the $64000 mark for the first time since February this year, with a maximum drawdown of nearly 50% compared to the historical high of $124824 set on October 6, 2025. This bull market has given up more than half of its gains.

On the emotional level, the pessimistic atmosphere in the market has reached its peak this year. The Fear and Greed Index, compiled by Galaxy based on multidimensional data such as on chain trading, derivative volatility, valuation levels, profit taking behavior, and ETF fund flows, fell to 13, deeply falling into the "extreme fear" range, one of the lowest readings of the year, indicating that market panic has reached a rare low in recent years.

3、 Market narrative reversal: from 'hottest trade of the year' to no one interested

In just one year, the market narrative of Bitcoin has been completely overturned. After the 2024 US election, going long on Bitcoin became a global consensus and the hottest trading strategy of the year, with unprecedented institutional allocation, retail investors following suit, and track heat.

By 2026, the market trend will completely shift. Under the strong pressure of massive AI themed transactions, the heat of the cryptocurrency market has significantly diverted, and Bitcoin is no longer the core focus of global capital. The attention of funds, trading activity, and market profitability continue to weaken, further amplifying the adjustment of the market.

Previously, there was a mainstream argument in the market that "Bitcoin's four-year cycle has expired". Many analysts believe that the traditional halving cycle will come to an end, with core logic including: the supply shock caused by halving will continue to weaken, market volatility will significantly narrow, long-term net inflows of ETFs will smooth out cycle fluctuations, and Bitcoin will hit a historic high before the halving, breaking the previous rhythm.

But this round of deep retracement proves that the cycle has never disappeared, it is just a temporary forgetting in the market.

4、 High replication of historical cycles: time, indicators, and rhythm overlap comprehensively

After reviewing the complete bull bear cycle of the first three rounds, Galaxy Research found that the current market trend from 2024 to 2026 is highly consistent with historical patterns, and the four-year cycle logic is still valid.

From the perspective of the peak cycle, in the past three cycles, starting from October when the block was reduced by half a year, the market's record high cycle remained stable at 403-441 days, and this cycle took 370 days, with a rhythm that basically fits the historical range.

From the perspective of the bottoming cycle, after the first three bull markets peaked, the confirmation time for the market bottom remained stable at 12-13 months (354-406 days). As of now, it has been 240 days since the historical high point of this round. According to historical rules, the ultimate bottom of the market is likely to fall in the fourth quarter of 2026.

The coincidence of cycles is not only reflected in the time dimension, but almost all core on chain indicators replicate the pullback characteristics of past bull markets after peaking. Among them, multidimensional indicators such as CVDD, realized price, realized market value, NUPL (unrealized net profit and loss), MVRV (market value/realized market value ratio), SOPR (cost output profit and loss ratio), reserve risk, position lock up, Mayer multiple, and Pierre multiple fully match the characteristics of the adjustment stage after the historical bull peak.

This means that the current decline is not a systematic collapse, but a standard cyclical retracement that is completely within the reasonable range of historical fluctuations.

5、 Bear market resilience highlighted: multiple 'crash predictions' fall through, long-term chassis continues to solidify

In this round of continuous adjustment, pessimistic comments have once again flooded the market, but Bitcoin's bear market resilience remains significant. According to statistics, Bitcoin has been declared a "complete collapse" by the market over 470 times since its inception, but it has remained steadfast and continues to complete cyclical cycles and value reconstruction.

Even if the current price continues to decline and the deepest adjustment of the market approaches a halving, the central price of Bitcoin is still far higher than the bottom of the previous bear market. Even if it falls to the $30000 range, the price is still more than twice the low point of the previous bear market, and the long-term value base is extremely stable.

More importantly, every deep bear market continues to accumulate long-term consensus funds. The chips currently entering the market at low levels are mostly long-term holders who firmly adhere to the narrative of "digital gold", institutional allocation funds, and value investors. The size and capital volume of this long-term holding group continue to expand in each cycle, constantly consolidating the underlying value base of Bitcoin and accelerating its transformation from a "high-risk speculative asset" to a "digital gold, macro allocation asset".

Conclusion

In the short term, the epic outflow of Bitcoin ETP funds, extreme emotional panic, and deep price retracement, the market is still in the painful stage of cyclical bottoming out, and pessimistic sentiment is still dominating the market. However, extending the cycle, this round of adjustment fully conforms to the four-year bull bear pattern of Bitcoin, and the indicators, time cycles, and market rhythms on each necklace all replicate historical trends.

According to historical cycles, the darkest stage of the market is approaching its end, and the fourth quarter of 2026 is likely to usher in the ultimate bottom of this cycle. Behind the short-term panic, the long-term value chassis continues to solidify, and every extremely pessimistic bear market is the starting point for a new cycle of market momentum.