The Bitcoin market is expected to reach a critical turning point in 2026, as the previously sustained recovery of funds is completely reversed. According to Galaxy's latest market analysis, the US spot Bitcoin ETF has experienced the largest single day capital outflow of the year, completely reversing the net inflow of funds throughout the year. Coupled with the stagnant pace of institutional holdings in Strategy (MSTR) and the possibility of coin sales, the two core support demands for Bitcoin have weakened simultaneously. Under the combination of multiple factors, the short-term weak market pattern has been established, and the bear market may continue. However, from a long-term perspective, the overall bullish foundation of Bitcoin has not been shaken.

1、 Fund turning point: Bitcoin ETF funds turn from positive to negative within the year, with concentrated selling pressure released

The turning signal of Bitcoin's funding sentiment in this round is very clear. Since the third week of April, the US spot Bitcoin ETF has maintained a net inflow trend, providing stable support for the stabilization and recovery of the currency price. But last Wednesday, the market experienced a crucial turning point, with a net outflow of $723.5 million from ETFs in a single day, not only setting a record for the largest single day withdrawal since 2026, but also ranking as the fifth largest single day outflow in the history of global spot Bitcoin trading products (ETPs).

The large-scale capital outflow this time directly caused the overall fund flow of Bitcoin ETF in 2026 to shift from net inflow to net outflow, marking a temporary easing of institutional sentiment. The trend of coin prices is highly synchronized with the flow of funds. Against the backdrop of various emerging investment themes erupting around the world and market fund preferences rapidly switching, the traditional mainstream asset Bitcoin's upward momentum continues to decline, falling into a weak pattern of oscillation and weakening.

2、 Serious fund diversion, periodic weakening of Bitcoin scarcity

The risk appetite of the global capital market continues to recover, and with the positive support of the easing of the geopolitical situation between the United States and Iran and the expected repair of the Strait of Hormuz navigation last Thursday, the US stock market once again hit a new historical high. Among them, hard core technologies such as artificial intelligence, chip manufacturing, and the return of the domestic semiconductor industry in the United States continue to attract massive incremental institutional funds.

Since the launch of the spot Bitcoin ETF in January 2024, Bitcoin has experienced the first time that the proportion of risk capital diversion has fallen to a stage low. Both the traditional US stock technology track and the segmented hotspots within the cryptocurrency market are continuously competing for market liquidity. In this year's cryptocurrency market, sub sectors such as AI related currencies, decentralized exchanges for perpetual contracts, and privacy coins have continued to rotate and strengthen. However, Bitcoin, as the core asset of the market, has not benefited from sector rotation dividends, and its significant fund siphon effect has further exacerbated its weak market.

3、 Institutional support collapses: Strategy's coin purchases stagnate, unlocking coin sales expectations to heat up

If the outflow of ETF funds is external pressure, then the slowdown in the actions of Strategy, the world's largest public Bitcoin holding institution, is a collapse of the core support within the market. Over the past 18 months, the incremental funds of ETFs and the continuous corporate treasury buying behavior of Strategy have been the two core pillars supporting the steady upward trend of the Bitcoin market. Now, both pillars are shrinking simultaneously.

In the 2026 Q1 earnings conference call, Michael Saylor, Executive Chairman of Strategy, publicly released a heavyweight signal that the company does not rule out selling its Bitcoin holdings in the future, completely breaking the market's inherent perception of "hoarding without selling". At the same time, the company's normalized fundraising and currency purchase mechanism has been fully suspended.

According to official data from Strategy, the company's current stock price is 1.20 times the relative corrected net asset value (mNAV) multiple, which is below the activation threshold of 1.22 times. Therefore, the market price issuance (ATM) mechanism for fundraising and coin purchases cannot be activated. In addition, the company's previously relied on perpetual preferred stock STRC financing channel has also come to a standstill. The security requires a trading price close to the face value of $100 before it can be issued at a fair price. Over the past two weeks, it has failed to meet the standard, completely cutting off the company's source of funds for new coin purchases. Under the constraints of multiple rules, Strategy has shifted from "incremental long positions" to "observing potential short positions", significantly weakening the market's support force.

4、 Market core judgment: Short term bear market continues, long-term bull market not yet over

Based on the triple logic of comprehensive funding, institutional behavior, and market rotation, the current weak Bitcoin market is not a short-term correction, but a temporary bear market caused by the decline of core demand, which is likely to continue to unfold. The current market lacks new incremental funds, core institutions have stopped bottoming out, and hot tracks continue to divert liquidity. Under multiple negative resonances, it is difficult for the coin price to restart an upward breakthrough in the short term, and the plan to hit the $100000 mark will continue to be postponed.

But it is necessary to clearly distinguish between short-term cyclical fluctuations and long-term fundamental trends. As of the time of writing, the Bitcoin quote is $73400, and the long-term trend remains stable. Financial market sentiment and fund rotation are inherently cyclical norms. Bitcoin has undergone multiple bull bear cycles and has always had strong resilience to repair, opening strong rebounds after multiple deep corrections.

The essence of this round of adjustment is a rebalancing of liquidity and a shift in market style, rather than a collapse of the underlying value of Bitcoin. The persistence of a short-term bear market is a temporary result of capital diversion and demand contraction, rather than the end of the long bull logic. After the cyclical review and liquidity return, the core asset value of Bitcoin will continue to be highlighted. This round of adjustment is only a deep accumulation of strength in the long bull market, and the overall bull market pattern has not come to an end.