1. Arca
“Uptick in business focused on decentralization, transparency, and auditability”
Interesting observations:
There is a global sentiment that cryptocurrency is the future of money.
What to expect in 2023
- Digital assets decoupled from and uncorrelated to traditional markets.
- Digital asset adoption in underdeveloped financial markets/countries.
- Acquisitions and partnerships from traditional finance in tokenization, product development.
- Education and state promotion of technology.
- NFTs utilized in loyalty, gaming.
Specific projects mentioned in the outlook:
Socios fan engagement platform.
The full 2023 Crypto Market Outlook by Arca is available here
2. Bloomberg
“The code committed no crime”
Interesting observations:
A significant dip within an elongated upward trend is what we observed in 2022. Nevertheless, the lost capitalization (around $1.3 trillion) roughly equals the drop in the market cap of two companies, Amazon and Google.
What to expect in 2023
- BTC, ETH, and stablecoins (or, more precisely, the crypto dollars) gaining dominance.
- The success of fiat money tokenization (stablecoins) will drive more tokenization projects on the blockchain.
- No near-term SEC approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs
Specific projects mentioned in the outlook:
Grayscale GBTC discount
The full 2023 Crypto Market Outlook by Bloomberg is available here
3. Coinbase
“The dramatic events of 2022 will shape the crypto landscape for years to come”
Interesting observations:
Unlike the previous crypto winter, in 2022, the crypto’s risk-adjusted return was equal to that of US and global stock.
What to expect in 2023
- Institutional investors investing in BTC, ETH, and other relatively matured assets.
- Permissioned DeFi tools that combine institutional-grade compliance and code-enforced transparency
- Tokenization of real-world assets will continue, yet no market breakthrough.
- Funds lost and locked in bankruptcy proceedings will take more than one year to recover.
- Challenging conditions for bitcoin miners will lead to consolidations.
- For NFTs: we don’t know what comes after correction– could be new forms of utility outside the art and collectibles.
- Next market cycle shaped by developed regulatory guidelines, including digital asset lending practices.
- MtGox creditors’ claims of 141,686 bitcoin (around $2.4B at December 2022 prices) to be disbursed.
- Ethereum Shanghai upgrade, expected in the first half of 2023, releasing staked ETH but at the same time attracting more liquid stakers.
- Increasing role of the stablecoins in the digital asset sphere and in commercial use. The composition of major stablecoins’ reserves under control and transparently reported.
Specific projects mentioned in the outlook:
Lighting network and Taro stablecoin; Obol and EigenLayer for ETH restaking; Curve LLAMMA and Aave GHO stablecoins.
The full 2023 Crypto Market Outlook by Coinbase is available here
4. Crypto.com
“2022 was an interesting year, to say the least”
What to expect in 2023
- Release of several AAA blockchain games
- Pilot projects in Soulbound Tokens (NFT tied to individuals)
- More diversified blockchain API providers launched
Specific projects mentioned in the outlook:
Wax blockchain for games; Lido finance, Anchorage, Blackdeamon for staking services; Mastodon and Farcaster as Twitter alternatives; Lens for decentralized social network protocol
This was summarized from the public version of Crypto Market Outlook by Crypto.com available here.
5. Forbes
“Risk in the crypto sector remains elevated”
Interesting observations:
Because of its brief history crypto market downturns have not coincided with a bear market in the wider financial space until very recently. So, this pullback, largely caused by such external environment, may be different from previous cycles.
What to expect in 2023
- External macroeconomic factors hold BTC and ETH from recovery; possible contagion events push further lows.
- Stablecoin markets heating up
- Some CBDCs (bet on China) expanding beyond domestic borders.
Specific projects mentioned in the outlook:
Solana as a platform for EURO backed USDC stablecoin
The full 2023 Crypto Market Outlook by Forbes is available here
6. Huobi
“7 aspects: market, data, investment, region, application, technology, and regulation”
Interesting observations:
We are currently facing a macroeconomic situation rarely seen in recent decades, macro factors are driving the change of the cryptocurrency market this year over endogenous factors such as regulations, new technologies and segments
What to expect in 2023
- The market will reach the bottom in early 2023.
- Social tycoons in Web2, such as Twitter, will continue to pursue decentralized projects, SocialFi.
- Accelerated Zero Knowledge network will start to launch.
- DApp chains grow.
- On-chain storage demand and associated segment growth.
- On-chain regulation strengthened.
- More countries adopting crypto as legal tender or as alternative means of payment.
- Domain name boom.
- NFT market low, yet with new financial derivatives and applications on the current model.
- No more subsidies in DeFi — low but sustainable revenue streams for participants.
- New round for over-collateralized stablecoins
- Metaverse connecting the inside and outside of the blockchain world
- POS-as-a-service industry growth
Specific projects mentioned in the outlook:
Filecoin, Stratos for storage solutions; ENS, .bit, SpaceID, Bonfida, Unstoppable for domain name projects; GHO, crvUSD for decentralized stablecoins; Lido, Rocket Pool, SSV for liquidity staking; DeFi Kingdoms, dYdX, Axie Infinity for DApp Chains
The full 2023 Crypto Market Outlook by Huobi is available here
7. Messari
“Winter is Here: It’s Time to Build”
Interesting observations:
Grayscale was the entity most responsible for Bitcoin’s ascent in late 2020, and, ironically, the 2022 crypto credit crush started from Grayscale too.
What to expect in 2023
- Headwinds for Ethereum from Bitcoin traders, P/E correction, competing L1s, yet Ethereum dominance in L1 holds.
- DAOs and institutional holders staking ETH after Shanghai upgrade.
- Miners continue to sell all their BTC to cover operating and debt costs.
- MtGox bankruptcy proceeds distribution and other stressed company asset sales in 2023.
- The Wall Street and Big Tech taking over crypto companies at a discount.
- DAOs M&As, buybacks and industry consolidation.
- Centralized crypto lending drained, DeFi lending takes over.
- Regulated stablecoins and “cowboy” Tether everywhere. Algorithmic coins are legit only in DeFi space.
- US DCCPA regulation text to be revisited following FTX events
Specific projects mentioned in the outlook:
Autism capital info service; L1 chains Solana, Aave/Lens; DePINs Filecoin, Arweave, Helium, privacy chains Zcash and Monero, Frax and USDD fractional reserve stablecoins; Lido and RocketPool for ETH staking;
The full 2023 Crypto Market Outlook by Messari is available here
8. New Order DAO
“in the belly of the bear”
Interesting observations:
The exposure of pervasive fraud, combined with tightening global monetary policies, led crypto markets into a mercilessly bearish winter comparable to 2018
What to expect in 2023
- Unwinding of FTX and other bankrupt crypto companies’ positions.
- Further blurring of lines between decentralized solutions and the real world.
- Ethereum capitalizing on safety and performance against other L1s.
- Zero-knowledge rollups are not ready yet, so will not gain significant traction in 2023.
- Solutions for mending fragmented liquidity between chains, enabled by advanced infrastructure.
- Monolithic app-chains (Cosmos, Avalanche, Polkadot) see competition from developing application layers on modular blockchains.
Specific projects mentioned in the outlook:
EigenLayer for ETH restaking; SLAMM for cross-chain liquidity; SUAVE and Dflow for decentralization of block builders
The full 2023 Crypto Market Outlook by New Order DAO is available here.
9. Pantera Capital
“the technology is clearly here to stay”
Interesting observations:
Improvements in DeFi like Compound v3 and the march of the ZK ecosystem continued regardless disasters inside crypto and in the outside world.
What to expect in 2023
- DeFi grows, CeFi consolidates.
- Privacy through ZK adoption and Speed through rollups.
- Institutions tokenizing real-world assets.
- More blockchain on-chain information and analytics, Web3 developer tools.
- Utility NFTs for identity, access and gaming.
Specific projects mentioned in the outlook:
Succinct Labs, Risczero, and Espresso Systems for ZK tech; MakerDAO’s DAI and Circle’s USDC; Goldfinch, Jia for real world asset tokenization; Moonbirds NFT project
The full 2023 Crypto Market Outlook by Pantera Capital is available here
10. PricewaterhouseCoopers
“We have been here before”
Interesting observations:
Disruptive new technologies often pass through a cycle of speculative excess — but after the dust settles, businesses transform and world-beating companies emerge.
What to expect in 2023
- Regulatory progress around stablecoins and crypto lending, limiting risky practices.
- No complete regulatory framework by the end of 2023.
- Legacy financial institutions are undisrupted, and some mastering the new technology.
- NFT develops into invisible parts of business processes of Web3.
- Commercially established merchants, social media, and telcos will drive the next wave of digital asset adoption.
Specific projects mentioned in the outlook:
None
The full 2023 Crypto Market Outlook by PricewaterhouseCoopers is available here
11. SAXO
“2023 may not become as eventful as 2022 for crypto”
Interesting observations:
Despite the fact that the contagion started in May this year upon the collapse of Terra, we are not yet over it.
What to expect in 2023
- Grayscale Bitcoin and Ethereum auctions.
- Withdrawable ETH staking contributes to short-term selling but is positive for the market in the long run.
- Participation of large corporations
- Correlation of crypto with higher-risk technological stock
Specific projects mentioned in the outlook:
None
The full 2023 Crypto Market Outlook by SAXO is available here
12. Superlayer (Mahesh Vellanki for Cointelegraph)
“blockchain adoption surrounded by culture wars”
Interesting observations:
“Community” was often simply a lovely word used primarily to describe “a bunch of speculators in a Discord sharing a common dream of rapid wealth who abandon the project once the growth carousel stops moving.
What to expect in 2023
- VC capital declining through the first half of 2023.
- Breakout simple Web3 applications, more stable and sustainable Web3 games.
- Ethereum ships sharding and gas fees reduced.
- Regulation will be quick, so patchy rather than holistic.
- New utility for NFT that will bring more users into the space.
Specific projects mentioned in the outlook:
LinksDAO for online-to-offline DAO example;
The full 2023 Crypto Market Outlook by Superlayer’s Mahesh Vellanki for Cointelegraph is available here
13. VanEck
“we believe crypto’s financial disruption will continue”
Interesting observations:
Bitcoin spot ETFs are denied on grounds of “market manipulation” but Bitcoin futures ETFs have been approved
What to expect in 2023
- Miners’ bankruptcies.
- Ripple lost SEC lawsuit.
- Financial institutions tokenizing real world assets.
- Brazil is the most crypto friendly country with a high level of adoption. tokenization of sovereign debt.
- “Twitterpay”.
- A new decentralized stable coin unicorn.
- A nation dependent on oil exports adding Bitcoin to its sovereign wealth funds.
- Multiple AAA blockchain game releases.
- Staked ETH released, new staked percentage at least doubles.
Specific projects mentioned in the outlook:
AAVE’s GHO for decentralized stablecoin;
The full 2023 Crypto Market Outlook by VanEck is available here
14. Bonus: Vitalik Buterin
“To get from 10% to 70% adoption, crypto needs a different, opposite, strategy from what it had getting from 0.1% to 10%”
Interesting observations:
Post peak periods are always periods in which significant technological progress is happening
What in the Ethereum application ecosystem excites me
- Money: the first and still most important app.
- DAO-governed real-world asset backed stablecoins.
- Tokenization of stock indices and real estate using stablecoin formula.
- Blockchain identity.
Specific projects mentioned in the outlook:
RAI for stablecoins; Polymarket and Metaculus for prediction markets; POAP for blockchain identity;
The post by Vitalik Buterin is available here and his explainer interview to Bankless here
15. Another Bonus: Observers
“don’t take this serious”
Interesting observations:
All the above projections were boring. Our authors made much interesting bets:
What to expect in 2023
- Bitcoin inventor Satoshi Nakamoto’s identity revealed.
- Ethereum staking reaches unprecedented levels effectively cancelling the free circulation of ETH.
- Tether switched to the floating model and USDT trading above its $1 peg due to increased demand.
- USDC merges with BUSD and USDD to form BUSDDC.
- Microsoft acquires all BTC miners and incorporates mining in Windows.
- China’s e-CNY is listed on Binance.
- US tokenizes its national debt on Solana.
- Paris Louvre produces NFTs for all its collections and burns the originals.
- Elon Musk incorporates Dogecoin payments into Twitter.
Feel free to add your projections to this list in the comments.
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