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Waller Signals Rate Hike Focused on Inflation

On August 28, Federal Reserve Chairman Waller stated on Friday that if policymakers cannot be confident that inflation is "declining at a clear and sufficiently rapid pace" back to 2%, the Fed "still has work to do." This suggests that if price pressures do not improve, the Fed may consider raising interest rates next. Waller made it clear that he remains committed to the Fed's long-standing policy of managing inflation through interest rate adjustments. This significantly increases the likelihood of the Fed's next rate hike, which could create a divergence with President Trump, who has long sought rate cuts. This statement essentially eliminated any ambiguity left previously. At the press conference at the end of July, Waller had refrained from responding extensively to whether a rate hike was necessary to address the inflation issue, which has been significantly elevated this year and has exceeded the Fed's target for more than five consecutive years.

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    On August 28, Federal Reserve Chairman Waller stated, "Although the PCE and CPI data released this summer have exceeded expectations, they have not convinced me that there has been a meaningful improvement in the underlying trend of inflation." He added, "Market prices reflect that the market believes we will achieve price stability. I can assure you that the market's judgment is correct." Waller subsequently emphasized that with inflation rates above 2%, the Fed's "current primary focus should be on prices." His highly anticipated speech comes amid criticism of the Fed's streamlined communication strategy. Economists and market participants believe this strategy lacks clear articulation regarding the recent economic and monetary policy outlook. Waller's remarks seem to address these concerns, as he elaborated more deeply than before on his views regarding the economic situation and the Fed's policy priorities under his leadership. He stated, "Let us also clarify another aspect of our goals: price stability will not be achieved automatically, and inflation will not necessarily return on its own. Achieving price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve." It is expected that Waller will not answer questions posed by central bank officials and economists present at the event.
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