British financial commentary on the U.S. September non-farm payroll report points out that the U.S. labor market unexpectedly rebounded, which will make the Federal Reserve's decision on whether to cut interest rates next month more complicated. The newly added non-farm payroll for September released on Thursday recorded 119,000, not only higher than the 50,000 predicted by economists surveyed by institutions but also significantly higher than the revised 22,000 in August. The unemployment rate rose from 4.3% in August to 4.4%, hitting a new high since 2021.

This report is the first economic health indicator released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics since the official data release was interrupted due to the record government shutdown. The unexpectedly positive data will strengthen the position of the hawkish members of the Federal Open Market Committee, who have consistently warned that the Federal Reserve should not cut rates too quickly. After the data was released, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index both fell. Although U.S. President Trump has long pressured the Federal Reserve to cut rates, deep divisions have emerged within the central bank: one faction advocates continuing to cut rates at the December meeting to support the labor market, while the other faction worries it may exacerbate inflation risks. The government shutdown has further complicated the Fed's decision-making—the regular economic report releases were interrupted, and on Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics also announced that due to the halt in data collection during the shutdown, it will no longer release a separate October employment report, with some data to be merged into the November report release. (Jin10)