The total US debt is expected to exceed the statutory limit of $41.1 trillion by 2027, with the results of the midterm elections in November becoming a crucial variable. Last week, Trump proposed that if the Republican Party wins the midterm elections, each American would receive a $5,000 bonus, which critics say would accelerate reaching the limit. Some Republicans are contemplating addressing the debt ceiling early during the 'lame duck' session after the elections to prevent the Democrats from using it as a political leverage if they regain control of both chambers. However, fiscal conservatives within the Republican Party, such as Congressman Chip Roy, strongly oppose this unless it is accompanied by significant spending restrictions. House Speaker Johnson holds only a slim majority, allowing for a maximum of three members to defect, while the Senate must overcome the 60-vote threshold. On the Democratic side, if they win, they will use the debt ceiling as a key lever to constrain the White House. A similar standoff in 2023 brought the US to the brink of default, leading Fitch to downgrade the US credit rating from AAA to AA+.
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