On March 24th, former President Trump posted on Monday stating that the US and Iran had engaged in "very good and productive dialogue" to resolve the Middle East conflict. However, prior to this announcement, 10 newly opened accounts on the prediction market platform Polymarket had placed large bets on a ceasefire between the US and Iran by March 31st or April 15th. These bets totaled approximately $160,000, with potential profits exceeding $1 million if a ceasefire occurs before the end of the month. Following Trump's statement, these accounts have already seen unrealized gains of over $300,000. One particular account had previously profited over $85,000 by betting on US strikes against Iran and has now bet on a ceasefire. The scale, timing, and past track record of these bets have led to speculation that the account holder may be an insider with access to non-public diplomatic information, potentially linked to US or Iranian political circles and aware of undisclosed diplomatic progress. Concurrently, approximately 15 minutes before Trump's statement, both S&P 500 E-mini futures and WTI crude oil futures experienced isolated, abnormal volume spikes, with no apparent market catalyst at the time. After the release of Trump's statement, S&P 500 futures surged over 2.5% in pre-market trading, while crude oil futures fell nearly 6%. Anyone who bought stock futures and simultaneously shorted oil futures at that precise moment could have realized substantial profits within minutes. Both the SEC and CME Group declined to comment. On Monday, Polymarket announced an upgrade to its insider trading rules, explicitly prohibiting trading based on stolen confidential information, illegal insider information, and trading by users who have the ability to influence the outcome of an event. (JIN10)
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Unusual Bets on Polymarket Precede Trump's Statement; S&P and Oil Futures See Abnormal Volume Spikes
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