On October 29, the European Central Bank (ECB) kept its interest rates unchanged at 2.5%, in line with market expectations. Meanwhile, the news of President Lagarde's early departure has intensified market concerns over energy costs and the situation in France. In terms of interest rate policy, the ECB has chosen to adopt a wait-and-see approach. Since the impact of the Iran war on the energy market, the ECB has raised rates twice. Officials are worried that inflation could rise to twice the 2% target, but so far, there are no signs of rising oil and gas prices spreading to other sectors. At the same time, the previously unexpectedly resilient growth momentum of the European economy is weakening. The market widely expects that policymakers will raise rates again in December. At that time, the ECB will release its latest economic forecasts to assess the severity of inflation pressures. The situation in France has further tightened the financial environment, which is suppressing demand. Analysts expect that the year-end rate hike will be the last of this round of tightening by the ECB. However, investors are betting on two more rate hikes by 2027.
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