According to macroeconomic forecasting consultancy TS Lombard, the U.S. Treasury can indeed temporarily lower long-term yields and compress the spread between 30-year and 10-year bonds by significantly increasing short-term debt issuance while repurchasing long-term debt. However, this effect is more short-term in nature. Currently, Treasury Secretary Yellen is pushing for long-term repurchase operations at a frequency close to three times a month, with a maximum single operation size doubled to $4 billion, which remains relatively small compared to the entire U.S. bond market. Even if similar operations like Operation Twist (where the central bank or Treasury sells short-term bonds and buys long-term bonds) are further implemented, the effects may quickly diminish. Looking back at the Operation Twist from 2011-2012, while long-term yields and the curve initially declined significantly after the policy was introduced, fundamentals regained dominance a few months later, and the impact of the second round of operations was weaker. Overall, while the Treasury has tools and can create temporary supply-demand changes, it cannot fundamentally alter long-term term premiums. Global capital flows and macro fundamentals will ultimately re-establish equilibrium. If investors believe that long-term bonds do not adequately compensate for inflation risks, or if the value of bonds as a hedge against equities declines, the demand generated by Treasury repurchases will ultimately be offset by reduced allocations from private investors.
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