July 29 - As the major conflict in the Iran war escalated again and international oil prices surged, US Treasury yields ended a three-day losing streak on Wednesday. Markets are concerned that rising energy prices will intensify inflationary pressures, while waiting for the Fed's interest rate decision later. The US and Saudi Arabia jointly attacked an Iran-backed Iraqi armed group on Wednesday, marking the first US airstrike in the Middle East since President Trump suspended airstrikes on Iran last week. In addition, Iran said it had launched attacks on US military bases in Jordan and ships in the Strait of Hormuz, and Trump vowed to retaliate. As of press time, both WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil rose more than 7%, to $84/barrel and $87.81/barrel respectively. Affected by the oil price rise, the US 10-year Treasury yield rose 2.1 basis points to 4.625%, hitting 4.6387% intraday; the 30-year Treasury yield rose 0.8 basis points to 5.104%, with an intraday high of 5.113%. Market attention then turned to the Fed policy meeting.
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Oil Price Surge Pushes Up US Treasury Yields, Markets Await Fed Rate Decision
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Fed's Rate Decision Imminent, Probability of Holding Rates Steady at 66.3%
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh will announce the second interest rate decision since taking office at 2 a.m. Beijing time. According to CME's FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 66.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 33.7%. For September, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged is 20.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 56.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 23.2%. -
Philadelphia Semiconductor Index Falls 4%, Micron Technology Down 5%
On July 29, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 4.00%. NVIDIA dropped 2.98%, TSMC dropped 3.67%, Broadcom dropped 1.87%, SK Hynix dropped 1.28%, Micron Technology dropped 5%, AMD dropped 5.51%, Intel dropped 3.36%, ASML dropped 2.73%, Lam Research dropped 5.28%, Arm Holdings dropped 6.73%, SanDisk dropped 8.04%, Qualcomm dropped 2.84%, Marvell Technology dropped 4.82%, and Western Digital dropped 0.68%. -
China Drafts New Rules Against Cyber Violence, Bringing AI-Generated Content Under Regulation
On July 29, China's Cyberspace Administration issued a draft regulation on cyberbullying governance for public comment. The draft requires platforms to build classifiers for detecting cyber violence content, provide users with a "one-click protection" feature, and implement blacklist management and regular reporting mechanisms for violating accounts. Notably, the draft explicitly brings AI-generated deepfake images and synthetic harassment texts under regulatory oversight. The Q&A platform Zhihu has already responded by restricting the use of anonymous accounts. -
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On July 29th, U.S. stocks fell further, with the Nasdaq Composite Index dropping over 1%, the S&P 500 Index falling 0.83%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declining 1.48%, and Nvidia falling over 3%. -
WTI crude oil intraday gain reaches 7%
On July 29, WTI crude oil's intraday gains once expanded to 7.00%, now reporting at $83.7 per barrel. Brent crude is now up 6.5%, reporting at $87.3 per barrel. -
ING: Dollar to Be Influenced by Oil If Fed Holds Rates Steady
On July 29, ING Group stated that if the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, the dollar will face pressure and decline along with oil prices. The dollar index has been nearly flat for the fourth consecutive session, seemingly unaffected by recent oil price fluctuations. On Wednesday, the 60-day rolling correlation between the dollar spot index and Brent crude oil futures prices fell to its lowest level since late March. ING strategist Francesco Pesole wrote, "This resilience will be severely tested today. If the Fed maintains its interest rate, it should trigger precautionary position unwinding against the dollar, re-linking the dollar to the signal of falling oil prices." -
Spot Gold Falls Below $4,000, Gold and Silver Decline Together
On July 29, spot gold fell below the $4,000 mark, with gold and silver declining together. Coeur Mining and First Majestic Silver fell more than 4%, Endeavour Silver and Pan American Silver fell more than 3%, while Eldorado Gold, Barrick Gold, US Gold Corp, and Kinross Gold all fell more than 2%. -
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