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Next week’s macro outlook: Trump 2.0 is about to begin, and Bitcoin may fly higher

On January 18th, it was reported that before President Trump returned to the White House, inflation data and dovish comments from Federal Reserve Board member Bullard caused the market's expectations of a rate cut to rebound. Currently, the currency market is pricing in a 40 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2025. With the Federal Reserve entering a quiet period, next week's US economic data will be relatively light, and the market will focus on the start of President Trump's term and his potential market impact. The following are the key points that the market will focus on in the new week:

On Monday, the Davos World Economic Forum annual meeting will be held until January 24th;

At 23:00 on Wednesday, the US December Conference Board Leading Economic Index month-on-month rate will be released;

At 23:05 on Wednesday and 18:00 on Friday, European Central Bank President Lagarde will give speeches;

At 21:30 on Thursday, the US initial jobless claims for the week ending January 18th will be released;

On Friday, the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision and economic outlook report, and at 12:30, Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda will hold a monetary policy press conference;

At 22:45 on Friday, the preliminary value of the January S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI for the US will be released.

Given that President Trump is expected to announce cryptocurrency-friendly policies, Bitcoin may soar even higher. Insiders revealed that President Trump plans to issue an executive order elevating cryptocurrency to a "policy priority" and giving industry insiders a voice in his government, marking a significant shift in US cryptocurrency policy. It is reported that the executive order will also include a suspension of any lawsuits involving cryptocurrency and consideration of establishing a national Bitcoin reserve.

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