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Morgan Stanley: Nvidia's Off-Balance Sheet Financing Implies $200 Billion Risk Exposure

On August 26, Morgan Stanley's corporate credit team recently released a research report, assigning Nvidia a 'neutral' credit rating. The report highlights that the company has created a potential credit exposure of approximately $200 billion through large-scale financing arrangements to support artificial intelligence infrastructure development. The analysis team referred to this phenomenon as 'balance sheet as a service.' Morgan Stanley credit analysts Lindsay Taylor and Nishant Sathiyam estimate that by the end of 2028, Nvidia's overall credit exposure will be around $200 billion, with approximately $170 billion related to customer guarantees and contingent liabilities. However, even accounting for these exposures, Nvidia's balance sheet remains resilient: the total debt leverage ratio is only 0.4 times, and it is expected to rise to only 0.7 times after growth stabilizes in 2028. A peak debt level would need to at least double to potentially trigger a downgrade by S&P. The analysts start with a 'neutral' rating and advise investors to remain patient, as there is currently a lack of effective ways to assess tail risks, and over $1 trillion in opaque financing from suppliers within the ecosystem continues to operate through 'creative structures.'

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