On July 20, Vishnu Varathan, Head of Macro Strategy for the Asia-Pacific region at Mizuho Securities, pointed out that global financial markets may face a 'triple blow'. Firstly, the escalation of the US-Iran conflict is on the brink of war in the Middle East. Secondly, there are concerns about overheating valuations in the AI sector, leading to panic in that field. Thirdly, the Federal Reserve is adopting a hawkish stance due to worries about persistently high inflation. Considering these three shocks, the threat of a summer crash akin to a heatwave cannot be ignored.
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Mizuho Securities: Global Financial Markets May Face 'Triple Blow'
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UK Prime Minister Starmer delivered a farewell speech at Downing Street, stating, "My work is complete. Over the past six and a half years, I have led our party out of the historic defeat of 2019, transforming it into a party capable of facing the nation, and we achieved an overwhelming victory in the 2024 election. Since then, it has been the honor of my life to serve as Prime Minister for you and this great country. I believe that today’s Britain is stronger and fairer than it was two years ago. However, what I will always remember is the humbling aspect of this job, which is being able to witness the greatest things of this country in action from the front row. Every day, I see countless acts of resilience—resilience, perseverance, integrity, and compassion from those who serve the nation." Starmer concluded, "We must remember the greatness of Britain. As we debate how to solve problems, there are certain things we inherit from our nation and character that give us the confidence to believe we can make the country better. We can create a Britain where every child can go further based on their talents, and if we do not succumb to division, we can unite different people under a common banner. Therefore, as I now pass the baton to Andy Burnham, I wish him all the best. He has my full support... I thank the people of Britain for the opportunity to serve. I leave with dignity, I leave with a smile, and I am proud of all we have achieved." (Jinshi) -
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Analyst: The Federal Reserve Needs to Tighten Monetary Policy
According to analyst Bill Dudley, regardless of fluctuations in high-frequency data, there are still compelling reasons for the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy. First, given the current economic conditions and the asymmetry between the Fed's dual goals of achieving full employment and price stability, a tightening monetary policy is appropriate. On one hand, the unemployment rate has remained stable and is very close to the level that members of the Federal Open Market Committee consider to be full employment; on the other hand, inflation remains high, with various core inflation indicators generally between 2.4% and 3.3%. In this context, monetary policy should adopt a tightening approach. Second, there is almost no evidence that the current monetary policy is tight. The federal funds rate has been maintained at its current level or higher for nearly four years, and the unemployment rate has been quite stable, remaining at full employment levels for the past two years. If the policy were truly tight, we would theoretically expect to see an increase in the unemployment rate and a decrease in inflation. The current strong conditions in the financial markets also support this judgment. Third, the surge in AI investments supports further tightening of monetary policy. The spike in AI spending is driving real GDP growth and pushing up prices in several areas, such as electricity costs and semiconductor chip prices. Although AI is expected to enhance productivity and help reduce inflation in the long term, its current dominant role is still to stimulate demand and push up prices. Fourth, the credibility of the Federal Reserve is at risk. The inflation rate has exceeded the Fed's 2% target for more than five consecutive years. If the Fed hesitates, market participants may perceive Waller's tough rhetoric as mere 'bluster.' The Fed should not tighten monetary policy solely to enhance its anti-inflation credibility. However, the reality is that the risks faced by the Fed are asymmetric: if monetary policy is not sufficiently restrictive in the coming years and fails to bring inflation back to 2%, the costs will be greater than those of a slightly tight policy that later proves to be overly restrictive. Waller has consistently pledged to achieve price stability and maintain the independence of the Fed, but actions speak louder than words. Establishing working groups and proposing new ideas are commendable, but monetary policy cannot be outsourced to external experts or market participants. The Fed needs to intensify its efforts to tighten monetary policy. Bill Dudley expects that the Fed will maintain its current monetary policy at next week's meeting, but by autumn, the pressure to tighten monetary policy will become very significant.
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