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Macroeconomic Outlook: US-Iran Talks Dominate Market Sentiment, Macro and Micro Data Drive Rational Analysis

On June 22, the market will primarily focus on the progress of US-Iran talks and their subsequent impacts. On Monday morning, news of a 'breakdown' in talks between the US and Iran triggered a wave of panic in the market, but stocks like SK Hynix narrowed their losses after opening, alleviating the panic. It is anticipated that the market will continue to closely monitor the US-Iran negotiations and the evolving situation throughout the week. On the other hand, US PCE data and earnings reports from AI star stocks like Micron will influence the market's rational analysis of the AI investment boom. On Thursday at 04:00, the Federal Reserve will release the results of its annual bank stress tests; at 20:30, the US will report initial jobless claims for the week ending June 20, the year-on-year core PCE price index for May, the month-on-month personal spending for May, the final annualized quarterly real GDP for Q1, the preliminary quarterly real personal consumption expenditures for Q1, the final quarterly real personal consumption expenditures for Q1, the final annualized quarterly core PCE price index for Q1, the month-on-month core PCE price index for May, and the month-on-month durable goods orders for May. On Friday at 03:40, FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President John Williams will speak; at 06:30, 2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will speak; and at 23:30, 2026 FOMC voter and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will speak. The newly listed 'NVIDIA Challenger' Cerebras Systems (CBRS) is scheduled to release its Q1 earnings report after the market closes on June 23, 2026 (Tuesday) local time in the US. The market will focus on this chip newcomer’s first report after its IPO. The company is expected to report a Q1 loss of $0.14 per share, supported by a backlog of $25 billion in orders, but it also faces risks of overvaluation and execution. Memory chip manufacturer Micron Technology (MU) will release its quarterly earnings report after the market closes on June 24 (Wednesday), which will be crucial for gauging chip demand; the market will use this to observe whether demand is still accelerating. The company guides for revenue of $33.5 billion and a gross margin of approximately 81%.

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