On September 12, the global market's main focus over the past week centered on three themes: 'inflation + war + interest rate hikes.' The U.S. August CPI accelerated again, significantly increasing market bets on a rate hike at the Federal Reserve's meeting from September 15 to 16; the situation in the Middle East continued to escalate, with crude oil prices rising back above $100; and the European Central Bank announced a 25 basis point rate hike, putting major global central banks back under inflationary pressure. The U.S. August CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year, while core CPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month. Coupled with previously strong PPI and employment data, the market widely expects the Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points next week. Meanwhile, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds approached 5%, and the dollar fluctuated this week, initially falling before rising. Crude oil emerged as one of the strongest assets this week. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has spread to the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, and the Mandeb Strait, compounded by attacks on Saudi energy facilities, causing Brent crude to briefly exceed $100. After the attack on Saudi Arabia's east-west oil pipeline, it was temporarily shut down, further amplifying supply concerns. If shipping through the Strait of Hormuz or the Red Sea continues to be disrupted, institutions like Goldman Sachs believe oil prices may rise further. The European Central Bank raised its deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.5% this week and warned that the Middle East conflict could keep inflation above the 2% target for an extended period. The market is also betting on further rate hikes in December. On the political front, variables are also affecting the market. Trump proposed at the Republican midterm election conference that if the Republican Party continues to control Congress, a $5,000 'Trump bonus' would be issued to every adult American citizen, with potential costs exceeding $1 trillion, although the specific funding sources and implementation methods remain unclear. In the Russia-Ukraine context, high-level contacts between the U.S. and Russia have increased, raising expectations for a resumption of negotiations, although military actions by both sides have not significantly cooled down. Meanwhile, trade tensions between the U.S. and Canada continue to escalate, with potential measures like auto tariffs possibly further impacting the North American supply chain. The tech market is also facing another main theme: as the AI industry accelerates its expansion, concerns about security risks and capital bubbles are rising simultaneously. Internal researchers at OpenAI and Anthropic have openly discussed the risks of AI going out of control and self-improvement, making the sustainability of returns on AI investments a new focus for the market. Overall, the core logic of the market this week has shifted from merely betting on economic growth to re-pricing the combination of 'high oil prices, high inflation, and high interest rates,' with the future trajectory of risk assets becoming increasingly dependent on energy prices and the Fed's policy path.