JPMorgan Securities raised its year-end forecast for the yield on Japan's benchmark 10-year government bonds from 1.55% at the end of January to 1.7%, believing that US policies may bring various risks. It is predicted that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates in June and December, but actions that the US may take could complicate the situation; if tariffs put pressure on global economic growth, it may hinder the Bank of Japan from raising rates, but if Japan is accused of letting the yen depreciate, it may hastily raise rates, fixed income research director Takashi Yamawaki and strategist Hiroki Yamamoto wrote in a report on March 10.

The correlation between the long-term Japanese government bond yield trend and the Bank of Japan's policy interest rate may disappear; after the Bank of Japan raises rates to above 1%, long-term government bond yields may fluctuate sideways. JPMorgan also raised its year-end forecast for the yield on 20-year and 30-year Japanese government bonds from 2.15% and 2.40% to 2.35% and 2.65%, respectively.