On July 29, Yuxuan Tang of JPMorgan Private Bank cited market consensus in a research report, stating that the Bank of Japan is expected to hold steady when it concludes its two-day meeting on Friday. The head of Asian rates and FX strategy noted that the central bank had previously raised its policy rate to 1% in June. Tang said the market currently only prices in expectations for one more full rate hike before the end of the year. "Slowing inflation and weak wage growth justify the market's pricing that reflects a relatively loose policy bias," she said. Despite energy shocks, inflation indicators moderated in the second quarter thanks to large-scale government subsidies, and real wage growth has remained around zero.
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JPMorgan: Bank of Japan Expected to Hold Steady
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Fed's Rate Decision Imminent, Probability of Holding Rates Steady at 66.3%
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh will announce the second interest rate decision since taking office at 2 a.m. Beijing time. According to CME's FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 66.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 33.7%. For September, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged is 20.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 56.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 23.2%. -
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On July 29, WTI crude oil's intraday gains once expanded to 7.00%, now reporting at $83.7 per barrel. Brent crude is now up 6.5%, reporting at $87.3 per barrel. -
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On July 29, ING Group stated that if the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, the dollar will face pressure and decline along with oil prices. The dollar index has been nearly flat for the fourth consecutive session, seemingly unaffected by recent oil price fluctuations. On Wednesday, the 60-day rolling correlation between the dollar spot index and Brent crude oil futures prices fell to its lowest level since late March. ING strategist Francesco Pesole wrote, "This resilience will be severely tested today. If the Fed maintains its interest rate, it should trigger precautionary position unwinding against the dollar, re-linking the dollar to the signal of falling oil prices." -
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