On July 29, ING Group stated that if the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, the dollar will face pressure and decline along with oil prices. The dollar index has been nearly flat for the fourth consecutive session, seemingly unaffected by recent oil price fluctuations. On Wednesday, the 60-day rolling correlation between the dollar spot index and Brent crude oil futures prices fell to its lowest level since late March. ING strategist Francesco Pesole wrote, "This resilience will be severely tested today. If the Fed maintains its interest rate, it should trigger precautionary position unwinding against the dollar, re-linking the dollar to the signal of falling oil prices."
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ING: Dollar to Be Influenced by Oil If Fed Holds Rates Steady
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Fed's Rate Decision Imminent, Probability of Holding Rates Steady at 66.3%
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh will announce the second interest rate decision since taking office at 2 a.m. Beijing time. According to CME's FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 66.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 33.7%. For September, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged is 20.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 56.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 23.2%. -
Philadelphia Semiconductor Index Falls 4%, Micron Technology Down 5%
On July 29, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 4.00%. NVIDIA dropped 2.98%, TSMC dropped 3.67%, Broadcom dropped 1.87%, SK Hynix dropped 1.28%, Micron Technology dropped 5%, AMD dropped 5.51%, Intel dropped 3.36%, ASML dropped 2.73%, Lam Research dropped 5.28%, Arm Holdings dropped 6.73%, SanDisk dropped 8.04%, Qualcomm dropped 2.84%, Marvell Technology dropped 4.82%, and Western Digital dropped 0.68%. -
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On July 29, China's Cyberspace Administration issued a draft regulation on cyberbullying governance for public comment. The draft requires platforms to build classifiers for detecting cyber violence content, provide users with a "one-click protection" feature, and implement blacklist management and regular reporting mechanisms for violating accounts. Notably, the draft explicitly brings AI-generated deepfake images and synthetic harassment texts under regulatory oversight. The Q&A platform Zhihu has already responded by restricting the use of anonymous accounts. -
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On July 29th, U.S. stocks fell further, with the Nasdaq Composite Index dropping over 1%, the S&P 500 Index falling 0.83%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declining 1.48%, and Nvidia falling over 3%. -
WTI crude oil intraday gain reaches 7%
On July 29, WTI crude oil's intraday gains once expanded to 7.00%, now reporting at $83.7 per barrel. Brent crude is now up 6.5%, reporting at $87.3 per barrel. -
Spot Gold Falls Below $4,000, Gold and Silver Decline Together
On July 29, spot gold fell below the $4,000 mark, with gold and silver declining together. Coeur Mining and First Majestic Silver fell more than 4%, Endeavour Silver and Pan American Silver fell more than 3%, while Eldorado Gold, Barrick Gold, US Gold Corp, and Kinross Gold all fell more than 2%. -
Spot Gold Falls Below $4,000
On July 29, spot gold fell below the $4,000 mark for the first time since July 21, down 0.7% for the day. -
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July 29 news, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell more than 2%, marking the fifth consecutive trading day of decline, with a cumulative drop of over 13%, hitting a new low since early May. Among the constituent stocks, KLA Corporation fell over 5%, Applied Materials and NXP Semiconductors dropped over 4%, AMD, TSMC, ASML fell over 2%, and NVIDIA, Micron Technology, Intel fell nearly 2%. -
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As of July 29, the Dow's decline expanded to 1%, while the S&P 500 Index is currently down 0.3% and the Nasdaq is down 0.48%.
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