The Iran conflict has evolved into a game centered around the Strait of Hormuz—a vital waterway for global oil, gas, fertilizers, and other commodities. If the conflict ultimately results in the permanent control of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran or the United States, it could signify the end of the principle of free passage on the high seas that has supported global trade for centuries. Eric Glandt, a senior analyst at consulting firm Rystad Energy, stated, "This could set a dangerous precedent, significantly increasing the costs of international maritime trade, which will ultimately be passed on to end consumers." Since the U.S.-led attacks began on February 28, Iran almost immediately announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, creating the largest oil supply shock in history. With new leverage over the global economy, Tehran is striving to maintain this bargaining chip. Vessels wishing to cross the strait must either coordinate with Iran's newly established Persian Gulf Strait Management Authority (which may involve high fees) or face the risk of being attacked by Iranian armed forces. Rob Tumel, a senior portfolio manager at Tortoise Capital, pointed out that if tolls in the Strait of Hormuz become the norm for maritime transport, shipping costs could rise. While the fees are concerning, they are not the main issue. Reports indicate that Iran previously charged oil tankers $1 to $2 per barrel, amounting to about $2 million for each Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC). However, even if shipping companies are willing to pay, insurers are likely to refuse coverage for vessels making payments to sanctioned entities, including several key Iranian institutions. Nigel Green, CEO of financial consultancy deVere Group, stated, "Setting aside legal debates, insurers will prioritize this issue. Underwriters may directly cease coverage for fees involving sanction risks." Even if fees are collected by third parties like Oman, such charges could still violate international maritime law, including the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, giving insurers the right to refuse voyages or terminate coverage. Broader concerns arise that the fee model in the Strait of Hormuz could set a precedent for other global chokepoints, encouraging countries and regions like Indonesia, Singapore, and the UK to weaponize their geographic advantages. According to Rystad Energy analysts, the potential annual toll revenue from the world's top ten chokepoints, including the Strait of Hormuz, Gibraltar, Dover, and Malacca, could exceed $136 billion, representing a significant "undeveloped" sovereign revenue opportunity. "A world where a chokepoint is monetized is likely to be more inflationary, more divided, and more militarized," analysts warned. (Jin Shi)