On October 13, in the U.S. pre-market, storage chip stocks broadly declined, with SK Hynix falling about 5%, Western Digital down about 4%, SanDisk down about 4%, Micron Technology down about 3%, and Seagate Technology down about 3%.
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U.S. Pre-Market: Storage Chip Stocks Decline, SK Hynix Falls About 5%
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Morgan Stanley: Storage Stocks Often Seem Cheapest Yet Most Risky at Cycle Peaks
On October 13, a report from Morgan Stanley indicated that the AI-driven storage chip supercycle continues, but the investment logic for storage stocks is changing: while tight supply and demand, price increases, and profit improvements still provide support, the significant rise in stock prices and concentrated upward revisions of earnings expectations have fully priced in optimistic forecasts, limiting further upside potential. The report states that the core contradiction is that the stronger the fundamentals, the more the risks at the cycle peak are likely to be underestimated—storage stocks often peak before profits reach their zenith, as the market tends to extrapolate current high profits, making valuations appear cheapest when the market is at its highest. Since the start of this cycle in September 2025, Asian storage stocks have risen approximately ninefold, with a market capitalization exceeding one trillion dollars, and the average consensus earnings per share for Asian storage companies has been revised up by 432%. Samsung and SK Hynix have forward price-to-earnings ratios of about 3 to 4 times, which may seem cheap but could be a valuation trap near profit peaks; to support implied price space, DRAM contract prices need to increase by about 70% month-on-month. Historically, in 2008 and 2012, storage stocks peaked about four months ahead of profit peaks, and in 2018 this extended to eight months. The report suggests that the turning point may come later, but caution is still needed regarding changes in supply and demand dynamics after 2027. -
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Analyst: This is More Worrisome than Semiconductor Fundamentals
On October 13, influenced by the sharp decline in the stock prices of Samsung and SK Hynix, South Korea's benchmark index briefly fell below 6000 points. Analysts warned that the ongoing outflow of foreign capital poses greater risks. Eugene Investment & Securities analyst Huh Jae-hwan stated that the scale of outflow is too large to be attributed solely to portfolio rebalancing after the rise, and domestic investors in South Korea need to absorb this selling pressure. However, this may be difficult, as retail investors remain cautious after the drop in July, and institutions like the National Pension Service have limited capacity to increase their holdings. Yuanta Securities analyst Lee Jae-won noted that the flow of foreign capital is now more concerning than semiconductor profits. He remarked, 'Samsung Electronics' third-quarter operating profit exceeded market expectations, and memory prices and AI infrastructure investments remain strong. However, the continued foreign selling is dragging down the performance of the KOSPI index relative to other markets.'
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