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IEA: Global Oil Supply-Demand Gap Larger Than Previously Expected This Year

On September 11, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reported in its monthly report that the global oil supply-demand gap this year will be larger than previously anticipated, due to a lack of progress in ending the Iran conflict, which delays the normalization of oil flows from the Middle East until 2027, leading to soaring fuel prices. The IEA projects that global oil demand will decrease by 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026 (previously forecasted as a decrease of 1.6 million barrels per day); it is expected that global oil supply will be 1.74 million barrels per day lower than demand in 2026 (previously forecasted as 1.27 million barrels per day lower). So far, inventories have played a crucial role in balancing the market. With buffers diminishing and the global refining system stretched to its limits, the need to resolve the Middle East conflict and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, now in its fifth year, is greater than ever to avoid further tightening of the market.

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