On May 29, John Waldron, President and Chief Operating Officer of Goldman Sachs, stated at the Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference in New York that inflation is the 'single biggest risk factor' in the current economy and is also his personal greatest concern. Waldron, who is second-in-command to Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon, warned that if global long-term interest rates continue to rise, it will increase the overall cost of capital and suppress consumer spending, leading to widespread economic impacts. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported on Thursday that the core PCE price index, which is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, rose 3.8% year-on-year in April, marking the highest level in 2023 and significantly exceeding the Fed's 2% target. As a result, the bond market has once again sounded the alarm: current interest rates may not be sufficient to curb inflation. According to CME FedWatch data, market pricing indicates that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates this year has risen to 50.5%, surpassing the 49% chance of maintaining rates. A key factor contributing to the current stickiness of inflation is that the AI-driven infrastructure boom is insensitive to interest rates, weakening the effect of high rates in suppressing demand.
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